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On Monday, the main 2107 contract of Shanghai copper continued to fall, with the highest 67370 yuan / ton and the lowest 66350 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price of 66350 yuan / ton, down 1.
35% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME copper continued to be weak, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $9,065 / ton, down 0.
92%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) St.
Louis Fed President Bullard said on Friday that the Fed's hawkish turn last week, hinting at a faster tightening of monetary policy, is a "natural" reaction
to faster-than-expected economic growth, especially inflation, as the United States restarts from the pandemic.
(2) According to my nonferrous metal network, on June 18, China's copper concentrate port inventory was 642,000 tons, down 04,000 tons from last week; at the same time, China's copper ore processing fee TC was 37.
4 US dollars / dry ton, up 0.
9 US dollars / dry ton
from last week.
Spot analysis: On June 21, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 66700-67020 yuan / ton, the average price was 66860 yuan / ton, down 920 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Network reported that the overall transaction performance was flat, the downstream bearish sentiment was strong, and some traders hoped to adjust prices downward to seek transactions, but the overall demand was limited and more scattered
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts was 112626 tons during the day, a daily decrease of 6204 tons, a decrease of 4 consecutive days; On June 18, LME copper stocks were 168675 tons, an increase of 24,925 tons per day, an increase of 10 consecutive days
.
As of the week of June 18, the Shanghai copper inventory in the previous period was reported 172527 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,440 tons, a decline of five consecutive weeks
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2107 contract were 60915 lots, 6681 daily decreases, short positions were 61757 lots, daily minus 4181 lots, net short positions were 842 lots, daily increase of 2500 lots, long and short were reduced, and net short increased
.
Market research and judgment: the dot plot released after the Fed meeting suggests that interest rate hikes will be advanced, and confidence in US economic growth will increase, and the dollar index continues to rise; The state has deployed measures to stabilize commodity prices, and the recent dumping of reserves has officially
landed.
Upstream domestic copper mine inventories continued to grow, and copper mine processing fees TC steadily rebounded, indicating that the tension in copper mines improved, and the disturbance of South American copper mine strike incidents weakened
.
However, copper production has
declined slightly due to increased refinery overhauls recently.
At present, the downstream demand performance is not as expected, most of them are bargained on-demand, and the demand off-season is gradually approaching, and copper prices are under greater pressure
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2107 contract gave up its gains in the second quarter, and it is expected to be adjusted weakly in the short term
.
