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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract bottomed out strongly, rising to 12440 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up 1.
71% from the intraday low of 12230 yuan / ton, and rebounded 0.
53% from yesterday's closing price, the short-term sharp decline in Shanghai aluminum is regarded as a confirmation of last Thursday's rally, and Shanghai aluminum is now back above M60, that is, 12300 yuan / ton
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market turned to a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1609 and 1610 contracts was flat to 95 yuan / ton
.
Externally: Today's Asian Lun aluminum continued its recent decline, of which 3-month Lun aluminum slightly fell 0.
12% to 1665 US dollars / ton, down 2.
57% from this round high of 1709 US dollars / ton, but the Asian market its performance is slightly more resistant to other base metals, the current technical form is still stronger than other base metals, the technical support below focus on 1630 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: Today's Asian dollar index extended its overnight decline and is now falling to around
94.
3.
In addition, the market expects that the domestic second-tier property market will introduce cooling measures, such as restarting the loan and purchase restriction policy, thereby exacerbating the downside concerns
of China's economy.
Focus on the US Markit manufacturing PMI for August tonight, which is slightly more expected
.
In terms of industry, the aluminum inventory of Japan's three major ports fell to 305,900 tons at the end of July, down 10,900 tons or 3.
44% month-on-month, and also fell 185,000 tons or 37.
69% year-on-year, and hit a new low since August 2014 (294,800 tons), as Japan reduced aluminum imports
.
Market: On August 23, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12590-12630 yuan / ton, and the premium for the month was 90-100 yuan / ton
.
With the rise in the late trading of aluminum in the month, the quotation of holders was raised from 12590-12600 to 12620-12630 yuan / ton, the market is difficult to find a suitable source, Wuxi holders sell at a high price, with the rise of the market, middlemen are willing to replenish inventory at low prices, downstream enterprises are willing to receive goods at low prices, and the overall transaction is active
.
Today's Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract bottomed out and rebounded to 12440 yuan / ton, indicating that after the short-term aluminum price correction risk was released, the willingness to fall weakened
.
Moreover, Shanghai aluminum is still running above the moving average group, and it should not be too bearish
in the short term.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract can be cautiously held above 12330 yuan / ton, and the target is 12600 yuan / ton
.
