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Recently, the price of PVC futures has fallen, driving the center of gravity of the spot market to move downward, the quotation of enterprises has been lowered by 100-200 yuan / ton, the transaction of high prices is not smooth, the actual transaction is more profitable, and the trading atmosphere has become weak
.
On the supply side, PVC production has declined
slightly recently.
According to Longzhong information data, as of February 10, the overall operating rate of PVC was 77.
90%, down 0.
52%
from January 28.
Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method was 81.
49%, an increase of 0.
79% over January 28; The ethylene process operating rate was 65.
45%, down 5.
41%
from January 28.
In terms of demand, the downstream operating rate of PVC has increased recently, and downstream production has resumed after the holiday
.
The operating rate of profile enterprises in the sample enterprises counted by Longzhong is 0-40%, and the downstream load is gradually increased, and the demand for PVC is just increased
.
However, after the holiday, the price of PVC spot rose, and some resistance was generated downstream, and the willingness to replenish stocks was not high
.
In terms of costs, calcium carbide prices have fallen recently, and ethylene prices have risen
.
As of February 10, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was 4250 yuan / ton, down 1.
51% from February 5; The price of calcium carbide in East China was 4775 yuan / ton, down 1.
04% from February 5; The price of calcium carbide in South China was 4875 yuan / ton, down 1.
52%
from February 5.
As of February 10, the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price was $1191/ton, up 18.
98%
from February 3.
In terms of inventory, social stocks rose month-on-month this week, and Longzhong counted social stocks of 311,600 tons, an increase of 31.
59% from before the holiday and 84.
49%
year-on-year.
On the whole, short-term PVC fundamentals are more neutral
.
From the cost side, the current PVC raw material calcium carbide price fell, ethylene prices rose sharply, and the rise in PVC prices after the holiday was mainly boosted by the rise in crude oil prices
.
From the perspective of supply and demand structure, short-term operating rate and output decreased slightly, downstream demand improved, and inventory accumulated seasonally but increased more year-on-year
.
It is expected that the short-term is expected to be more volatile, with a focus on support
around 8600-8700 below.
