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Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated upward, constantly hitting a new high since the rebound, and the performance was ahead of the nonferrous metal, with a weekly increase of 4.
14%.
From the perspective of the rebound rhythm, the near month is still stronger than the far month, and the far month passively rebounds
with the push of the near month.
On the supply side, as the production capacity from June to August exceeded 1 million tons, the output will increase significantly in October and beyond, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter will increase by about
300,000 tons.
In the fourth quarter, the commissioning of some projects in Yunnan was delayed, easing the expectation
of oversupply next year.
In terms of imports, the waiting time in the LME warehouse is long, and the number of aluminum ingots in the Shanghai bonded warehouse is only more than 10,000 tons, and the number of import supplements is not sufficient
.
In terms of demand, the performance of profiles is differentiated, the start of construction profiles is mixed, and the order guarantee for industrial profiles is high; The demand for strip remains strong, and the order consumption of cables is fast, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline; Aluminum for automobiles has grown longer
.
The consumer side remained stable
overall.
In terms of inventory, the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 25,000 tons month-on-month to 62_90,000 tons, and the logic of destocking after the holiday is still there
.
Overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity from June to August exceeded 1 million tons, the output recovery path remained unchanged, and the recent postponement of some projects in Yunnan slowed down the long-term surplus concern
.
In terms of demand, orders for industrial profiles, strips and recycled aluminum are abundant, building profiles are mixed, cable orders are declining, and overall demand remains stable
.
The flat consumption of the primary aluminum market points to the continued decline of spot inventory, low inventory, high premium has become the main logic of short-term transactions, consumption has not seen a significant decline, the status quo of low storage is difficult to solve, so that aluminum prices remain strong
.
From a medium-term perspective, the landing of new production is slightly lower than that of pre-friends, while consumption performance is good, which alleviates the long-term oversupply and reduces the downward pressure
on aluminum prices.
