The crude oil transportation market is cautiously optimistic in 2022

In 2021, the world's major economies were further unblocked, and global maritime demand recovered significantly compared with the early stage of the new crown pneumonia epidemic
.
However, the tanker shipping market is still in the stage of digesting inventory, of which VLCC presents the worst freight rate in history, and enterprises are facing serious losses
.

Crude oil sea freight prices hit a new low
in 2021.
In 2021, global crude oil consumption demand rebounded, OPEC+ and other countries in order to restore oil price control production, global crude oil inventories were slowly depleted, and shipping demand was generally sluggish
.
Demand for crude oil transportation is expected to reach 1.
83 billion tons, down 1.
7%
year-on-year.
In the first 11 months of 2021, China imported 467 million tonnes of crude oil, down 7.
3%
year-on-year.
The annual average value of the BDTI index is 644.
7 points, and the average daily rent of the TD3C route in the Middle East-Far East market cannot cover its fixed costs, and the company's operation is in a serious loss range
.

The capacity of the original transportation market grew at a low rate, with annual capacity increasing by 1.
6%, and fleet handheld orders accounted for 7.
8%.

Low freight rates inhibit ship ordering and renewal activities; Dismantling capacity increased significantly, reaching 13.
13 million deadweight tons, an increase of 280.
6%
over last year.
VLCC capacity for storage reached 59, representing 6.
9% of the VLCC fleet, down 40% from its peak in 2020 and 22.
3%
from the beginning of 2021.
Due to the continuous downturn in the market and the trend of centralization of the market structure, COSCO SEA can form a China Pool joint venture to promote the market to warm
up.

The author is cautiously optimistic
about the crude oil transportation market in 2022.
It is expected that global crude oil supply is expected to be loose overall, and oil prices may fall.

At the same time, the market destocking has come to an end, global crude oil demand is expected to rise rapidly, global aviation and other demand has rebounded, and the annual growth rate of crude oil demand has reached 5%.

The US EIA (Energy Information Agency) predicts that global crude oil demand will increase by 3.
3 million barrels per day in 2022, exceeding 100 million barrels per day; China's crude oil demand has recovered, and the Asia-Pacific region is better than the global average
.
From the perspective of crude oil supply, the overall easing and oil prices have fallen, OPEC+ production is expected to increase, and US exports are expected to continue to increase
.

In 2022, geopolitical events, extreme weather and other unexpected events may bring trade and transportation opportunities
in the crude oil market in the short term.
From the supply side, it is expected that a large number of old ships will be dismantled, easing the pressure of oversupply, and supply will increase by 2.
3%.

The overall improvement of market supply and demand will usher in a certain recovery
in the second half of 2022.