The correction in copper prices is relatively small, and it is expected to remain dominated by a volatile pattern

At the macro level, the minutes of the current October Fed interest rate meeting can basically recognize that the Fed will announce the specific TAPER plan and path within this year, and the most important factors that previously promoted the strengthening of the dollar have been fulfilled, and the pattern of the continued strengthening of the US dollar may change
.
Domestically, due to the recent energy shortage caused by production and power restrictions may have a greater impact on the overall economic growth, but it is not excluded that the central bank will take appropriate monetary easing actions after that, and overall macro uncertainties are relatively large
.

On the supply side, the current TC price of imported ore has risen back to about $65/ton, while the benchmark price of TC given by the CSPT team in the fourth quarter was $70/ton, indicating that the market has certain expectations
for the gradual loosening of mine supply.
However, due to the current high freight rates and the recent release of some mining companies' financial reports, several companies have lowered their production forecasts
for 2021-2022.
At the smelting end, with processing fees still at a relatively high level, and the price of by-product sulfuric acid has fallen, it is also relatively high, making refinery profits relatively considerable
.
In the case that the production and power restrictions will no longer have a further impact on the main production areas of copper smelters, the supply may still be slightly relaxed
.

On the demand side, in October, due to the impact of previous production and power restrictions, sectors with high correlation with copper, such as real estate and infrastructure, showed a relatively poor outlook, especially in real estate, superimposed on the impact of the property tax pilot policy, making the future real estate and even the post-cycle outlook of real estate may be more unfavorable
.
So overall, demand is likely to remain relatively weak in November
.

In terms of inventory, the LME registered warehouse receipt fell to less than 18,000 tons, and on October 21, the LME also urgently modified some rules to ease the pressure that may be faced due to the low warehouse receipt, the current LME registered warehouse receipt has risen back to the level around 30,000 tons, but the current global inventory is still in a very low situation, and in this case, it is still a favorable situation
for copper prices.

To sum up, in November, although the fundamentals of copper varieties may be difficult to say optimistic, but due to the relatively strong financial attributes of copper, the price of copper varieties may not fall too sharply in the case of continued high inflation expectations, and the overall expectation is still dominated by a volatile pattern
.