The copper price market first suppressed and then rose, and the range of fluctuations was relatively large

Last week, the market mainly focused on two aspects, one is that the latest inflation data remains high, the expectation of early interest rate hikes in the United Kingdom and the United States has strengthened, the US dollar index has continued to strengthen to hit a new 16-month high, and once broke through the 96 mark on Wednesday, putting pressure on the external metal to weaken; Second, London and domestic inventory is tight, resulting in a sharp rise and fall in the spot market premium premium, providing a short-term speculation hot spot, copper prices after Thursday bottomed, Friday all the way, the overall "V" reversal
.
For the current trend, Friday night trading still has the opportunity to follow the trend, but it is expected that there will be no breakthrough market, and the possibility of the market rushing back down is high
.

In the market, spot copper rose 1130 yuan last week, far exceeding the futures market, mainly due to soaring
premiums.
After the change of month on Tuesday, affected by the large price difference in the next month, the good copper premium was reported to 780 yuan, and on Thursday and Friday, the high water of Guixi good copper once reached 2,500 yuan, a new high
in nine years.
In terms of import profit and loss, London copper stocks remained low, but increased on Wednesday, and the spot premium has returned to the normal level of within $100; On the other hand, the surge in domestic premiums has led to a reversal
of the price difference.
From Friday's import loss of 1300 yuan / ton, to last Friday's import profit of 2300 yuan / ton, mainly due to the difference in premiums caused by inventory changes
.

At the macro level, the Biden administration's infrastructure bill has little impact on the market, and the main reason for the rise of the dollar index is the expectation
of tightening of the entire monetary policy.
Investors believe tighter monetary policy will ease overheated inflation data
.
From a fundamental point of view, the continued high basis reflects the gradual increase in short-term market demand for copper, while the low price of the far month contract reflects investors' weak confidence in copper prices at the beginning of next year
.
In summary, the tight macro policy has made copper prices form a resistance level above, and the short-term high basis reflects that when copper prices fall, the market has strong demand support
.