The copper market rebounded in shock but there is no long-term support for fundamentals

On the macro front, the ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points, higher than the expected 25 points; After the Fed raised interest rates by 75-100 basis points, the market re-expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, and then the Fed interest rate meeting landed, making the dollar have a considerable correction
.
The negative month-on-month growth rate in the United States for two consecutive quarters has also made the market expect that the US economy has fallen into a technical recession, and concerns about the global demand outlook still plague the bulk market, but the short-term market is still immersed in the risk appetite of the European Central Bank and the Fed to raise interest rates, the market believes that the most compact stage of interest rate hikes has passed, macro pessimism has eased, the dollar continues to pull back at a high level, and non-ferrous market pressure continues to slow down
.

Domestically, the Politburo meeting continued to inject confidence into stable growth, but it can also be seen that the strong stimulus expected by the market is gradually falling short
.
Therefore, the focus in the coming period is on the performance of the US economy and employment data, as well as whether there will be an inflection point
in the steady growth of the domestic side.

From a fundamental point of view, the maintenance in Guangxi and other places caused the domestic production growth in July to be lowered, the market turned to consume existing inventory, and the spot premium rose under the large decline in inventory, and the market rebounded
。 In terms of demand, July demand continued to improve month-on-month, but still weak year-on-year From the perspective of inventory, the global copper explicit inventory at the end of July decreased by 93,000 tons from the end of the previous month to 523,000 tons, of which the domestic refined copper social inventory decreased by 82,700 tons from the end of the previous month to 336,700 tons, LME stocks increased by 8,225 tons to 132,500 tons, the performance of internal and external inventories also showed the difference between internal and external fundamentals, and the domestic import window continued to open
.

Although the copper price rebound seems to be very strong, it is impossible to find long-term support factors in the fundamentals, more because of the overkill after the decline is too large
.
Looking ahead, the short-term Fed's next interest rate meeting will only open in September, winning a rare time window for the rebound; Coupled with the domestic gold nine silver ten market or expected peak season demand in advance; The divergence in the strength of the rebound lies in the actual situation of the recovery of downstream starts, which is still weak
for now.