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On Monday, Shanghai copper opened low in the morning, the intraday market picked up, the shock rose, the main month 2210 contract opened at 59700 yuan / ton, the daily close at 60580 yuan / ton, up 740 yuan / ton, up 1.
24%.
The mixed US employment data cooled expectations of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes, boosting market sentiment, and Shanghai copper was on the strong side
, driven by a sharp rise in surrounding metals.
In terms of spot, on September 05, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 60970-61010 yuan / ton, up 420 yuan / ton; Premiums 520-560, up 60 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, spot circulation is slightly loose, holders are unable to support prices, downstream consumption is cautious, the market shows more and less, and the transaction is limited
.
In terms of stocks, as of September 3, copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) decreased by 2,100 tons, or 108,450 tons, by 1.
90%; As of September 5, the previous copper futures warehouse receipt was 3,127 tons, down 502 tons
from the previous day.
On September 5, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 80,700 tons, an increase of 22,300 tons from August 29 and 11,800 tons from September 1; Shanghai inventory was 57,900 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons from August 29 and an increase of 07,500 tons from September 1; Guangdong inventory was 16,200 tons, an increase of 09,300 tons from August 29 and an increase of 04,200 tons
from September 1.
On the supply side, the gradual end of domestic power rationing, the end of copper enterprise maintenance, production recovery, supply gradually returned to normal, weekend imported copper has also arrived in Hong Kong, copper spot shortage has eased, so market supply will show a recovery trend, short-term supply pressure has eased, but the overall explicit inventory is still at a historical low
.
On the demand side, on the terminal side, the current power and automotive sectors have performed relatively well after the epidemic, and State Grid said that the investment in grid infrastructure in 2022 may reach 530 billion yuan, an overall increase of more than 7%
over last year.
In terms of automobiles, according to CCTV, China's new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy will continue to be implemented until the end of
2023.
At present, the biggest uncertainty of terminal demand is still concentrated in the real estate sector
.
It is expected that demand in the fourth quarter will have a better
opportunity to improve sequentially under the condition that power continues to grow.
Comprehensive analysis, Shanghai copper rose during the day, up 740 yuan, or 1.
24%, the US non-farm payrolls data in August was higher than expected, but wage growth slowed down, unemployment rose, which provided some room for the Fed to raise interest rates later this month, making the market expect that the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes to heat up, and market sentiment warmed
.
On the supply side, overseas Chile and Codelco faced another decade of loss in production growth, coupled with extremely low inventories, which gave copper prices some support
.
Driven by the sharp rise in surrounding metals, the trend of Shanghai copper was strong
during the day.
