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Copper market summary: LME copper inventories have decreased by nearly 70% from the high level of the year, overnight London copper closed up $9, the pace of economic recovery in the euro area slowed down, the current domestic off-season demand is relatively flat, copper materials fell today
.
On the macro front, China's Caixin PMI yesterday came in at 531.
higher than expected and prior, which further strengthened the market's confidence in a further recovery in consumption in September
.
In addition, since September 1, the solid waste policy and standards have taken effect, which will also restrict domestic scrap copper imports to a large extent, so under such circumstances, copper prices yesterday once again maintained a strong pattern
.
In addition, the continued weakening of the dollar index also helped copper prices rise, although the dollar index appeared a certain counteroffensive yesterday evening, but as the Fed's new policy framework continues to trigger outside bets, US interest rates will remain near zero for longer than other countries, so the dollar continues to weaken or difficult to change
.
Therefore, the outlook for copper prices in the market is still promising
.
In the medium term, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor
for commodities.
In terms of fundamentals, at present, because major producers such as Chile are still seriously affected by the epidemic, the market is still worried about the supply situation in the second half of the year, but on the demand side, as the most important demand country, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is the most effective country
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in the second half of the year is relatively high
.
Prior to this, the State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 408 billion yuan, but as of the first half of the data, the actual investment amount of the power grid was only about one-third completed, so there is also the possibility
of rushing work in the second half of the year.
It should be noted that at present, copper prices showing a strong trend may stimulate the acceleration of new production capacity or even exceed expectations, which may also suppress copper prices from the supply side
.
