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At present, affected by the epidemic, the pattern of weak supply and demand is obvious, but the price sentiment of the copper market is relatively obvious
.
At the same time, high inflation has benefited copper prices
.
However, it is necessary to beware of the adverse impact
of the current continued rise of the US dollar on copper prices.
In addition, the continuous accumulation of the LME also requires continuous attention
.
On the macro front, the recent domestic stable growth expectations are strong, the market's worries about metal demand have eased, superimposed on supply interference, the center of gravity of futures prices has shifted upward, but the rally has not continued, and futures prices have fallen
.
The IMF lowered its future global economic growth forecast, international oil prices fell, the overall atmosphere of industrial products was empty, and the US dollar index continued to rise, and non-ferrous metals were weak and volatile
.
On the supply side, there has been a recent disturbance at the copper end, Minmetals issued an announcement that Peru's Las Bambas will not be able to maintain copper production, although copper concentrate processing fees continue to rise, but Chile, Peru and other places copper supply growth rate is relatively limited
.
Domestic copper supply, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic copper production in the first quarter was limited, reflecting that the rise in processing fees did not lead to a synchronous
increase in production.
Therefore, the supply side remains tight
in the short term.
In terms of inventories, ME copper inventories have recently rebounded, and the recent growth rate has accelerated, rising by more than 800 tons yesterday, and the inventory level is approaching 120,000 tons, a five-month high
.
Weekly copper inventories in the previous period are still falling, and inventory levels are at a nearly two-month high
.
In terms of downstream demand, in the short term, consumption expectations are still worried, first, the leading indicators of domestic real estate are still poor, and the epidemic has a greater
impact on the economy.
Second, in the context of the marginal slowdown of overseas economic growth, external demand may still be insufficient
.
Therefore, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is cautious to wait and see
.
