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Last week, Shanghai aluminum shock, aluminum ingots and aluminum rod social inventory fell by about 35,000 tons, spot maintained a slight discount
.
Guangxi's 100,000-ton production capacity has been put into operation, the recent increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited, downstream large factories generally have sufficient orders, and peak season consumption is optimistic, but possible storage dumping and early imports will bring disturbance to destocking
.
The aluminum market is in the seasonal destocking stage, the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, and it is expected to still fluctuate
in the near operating range.
Last week, aluminum ingots recorded 1.
228 million tons, and the weekly destocking was 23,000 tons, and spot demand improved to support destocking
.
From the perspective of the operating rate of processing enterprises, the overall continued recovery, especially the previously weak performance of profiles and cables has a recovery trend, orders have gradually improved, demand is still on the way to recovery, rigid demand still supports strong demand
.
The continued recovery of overseas demand is conducive to aluminum exports
.
On the supply side, the closure of the import window has caused some of the recent arrivals to be hoarded in the bonded zone, and some have directly flowed downstream, while the pace of domestic new construction and resumption of production accelerated in the second quarter.
Recently, high aluminum prices have begun to gradually transmit to the terminal, and it still takes some time
.
However, as the price falls, the downstream just need to purchase is not weak, while the two major demand sectors of construction and cable have a recovery trend, destocking is still the mainstream, so the next two quarters demand expectations are still relatively optimistic, the aluminum price to form a support, if there is no macro obvious disturbance, aluminum prices will fluctuate strongly
.
Since April, the global financial market has fallen into a confused period of long-short tug-of-war, and the nonferrous metal market has fluctuated strongly under the game of political and economic games of major countries, industrial policy disturbances and supply and demand inventory factors, but the decline in international oil prices and the risk of China's official repeated shouts about the price rise tide of bulk commodity materials have made the short-term temporary convergence of the short-term raw material price increase tide speculation, and the rapid switching of market risk appetite limits the height of rebound.
