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The construction capacity of adiponitrile will reach 1.5 million tons. Will there be excess in the future?

 Last Update: 2022-08-28
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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On the eve of the localization of adiponitrile, the domestic pre-built production capacity has reached nearly 1.
5 million tons, which is more than three times the current domestic demand.
Will there be a surplus of adiponitrile-nylon 66 in the next 3-5 years?

This is a judgment question that is difficult for even industry veterans to decide and answer

To clarify whether there will be excess, we need to clarify two perceptions: one is how much actual production capacity can be formed in the future, and the other is how much demand growth can be achieved!

How much actual production capacity can be formed?

INVISTA's 400,000-ton/year adiponitrile plant for butadiene process under construction in Shanghai Chemical Industrial Park is expected to be officially put into operation in 2022, and Huafeng's 50,000-ton/year adiponitrile plant for adipic acid process will be launched in 2019 It was put into production in October and is running stably

At present, the domestic construction capacity statistics of more than 10,000 tons

At present, the production capacity of nearly 1.
5 million tons planned in China has not yet formed the actual production capacity, so there is no excess, and there is no such thing as excess.
It depends on whether an industry has excess capacity or not, and the future growth space depends on the current development stage.
, At present, domestic adiponitrile-nylon 66 is still in the early stage of development, far from entering the high-speed development period after technological breakthrough

In the current early stage of domestic adiponitrile development, even if the actual output of INVISTA's butadiene method and domestic adipic acid method can be formed, after the products come out, they will not sell at low prices in order to seize the market, and INVISTA Shanghai The investment in the adiponitrile project is all funded by foreign shareholders.
As a multinational company, it will not reduce the sales price after it is put into production.
Therefore, the adiponitrile market pattern will not change in the next 3-5 years

How much can demand grow?

At present, adiponitrile, the raw material of nylon 66, is similar to the localization process of caprolactam, the main raw material of nylon 6 more than 10 years ago.
In the past, caprolactam has been heavily imported, which has become a bottleneck restricting the development of nylon 6 in China.
In the past ten years, domestic caprolactam and nylon 6 production capacity and apparent consumption have grown rapidly

Nylon 66 has better comprehensive performance than nylon 6.
The fundamental reason that affects the release of nylon 66 demand is that the raw material adiponitrile is not localized and the cost is high.
In the past five years, the demand has been hovering at 400,000-500,000 tons per year, and the production capacity of nylon 66 in 2020.
At 560,000 tons/year, the apparent consumption of nylon 66 is about 590,000 tons, which is less than 15% of that of nylon 6

There are three new blue ocean markets for nylon 66 in the future:

1.
Civil clothing

Nylon 66 feels softer and skin-friendly than nylon 6, and its fiber permeability, wear resistance, temperature, sunlight and other adaptability are better than nylon 6.
At present, nylon 6 fiber is mainly used in domestic civilian clothing, and nylon 66 fiber has not yet been used.
, Many European countries use nylon 66 fiber for civilian clothing.
High-end, especially exported clothing and socks are mostly nylon 66 fiber.
With the localization of adiponitrile, civilian clothing includes underwear, yoga pants, quick-drying pants, skin clothes , Jackets, etc.
will use nylon 66 fiber

2.
Military uniform

Nylon 66 fiber materials are mainly used in the production of combat clothing and field equipment of the US military and developed countries

3.
New energy vehicles, rail transit

"Replacing steel with plastic" has become a trend.
PA66 has various performance advantages such as light weight, heat resistance, high temperature resistance, and high strength, while meeting the needs of vehicle weight reduction.
New energy vehicles and rail transit have become nylon 66.
Demand grows new driving force
.

Nylon 66 not only reduces the amount of metal used in auto parts, but also reduces energy consumption caused by steps such as welding during component processing
.
PA66 is an ideal material in many applications such as electric vehicle circuit breakers, lithium battery frames and housings, high-voltage cable conduits, charging plugs and sockets, engine control units, sensors, cooling valves and connectors
.

At present, any ratio or formula to measure and predict the consumption of adiponitrile and nylon 66 in the next five or ten years has reference significance, but a basic fact is that nylon 66 has better comprehensive performance than nylon 6, and adiponitrile production With the expansion of scale and the reduction of cost, the application potential of nylon 66 will be released rapidly, and even will show geometric growth
.
At present, a consensus in the industry is that the demand for adiponitrile and nylon 66 can be doubled in the next two to three years.
In the next 5-10 years, adiponitrile will reach a certain marginal production cost, and the demand for nylon 66 will reach 400% of the current nylon 6.
The demand of 10,000 tons is not impossible at all.
According to the calculation that about 0.
520 tons of hexamethylene diamine is needed to produce 1 ton of nylon 66, the demand for adiponitrile is 2 million tons
.

China, which is about to become the world's largest adiponitrile-nylon 66 market, is worth looking forward to!

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