The cold snap hit, and the LNG market rose in price

In recent days, the nationwide cold wave has boosted the relatively low liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, and the mainstream transaction prices in northwest, north China, southwest, central China and Shandong have risen widely, and domestic gas has pushed up strongly
.
According to LNG Internet of Things statistics, on November 29, 14 domestic liquid plants increased by up to 200 yuan (ton price, the same below); On November 30, 21 liquid plants increased by up to 550 yuan; On December 1, 56 liquid plants increased by up to 650 yuan
.
Among them, the Northwest Liquid Plant has increased significantly, and the current listing price of Shaanxi manufacturers has risen to 4700~5150 yuan, and the listing price of Inner Mongolia has risen to 4500~5100 yuan
.

"In the current context of oversupply, the cooling has led to an increase in urban gas demand, coupled with the increase in the cost pressure of the Northwest Raw Gas Auction Auction, which has supported the sharp rise
in domestic LNG prices.
" Yang Yan, a natural gas analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that the current LNG market has risen considerably, downstream purchases have increased, and some liquid plants in Shaanxi, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia have reduced production due to gas restrictions, and most of the liquid plant inventories are at a medium and low level, and short-term LNG prices are still expected
to rise.

From the perspective of supply, since November, due to the abundant resources of upstream suppliers, Hubei Huanggang Kunlun and Shandong Tai'an Kunlun have started up, and LNG supply has increased; At the same time, the cost of gas sources decreased in the second half of November, and the liquid plant still had expectations of price increases in the winter LNG market, and the willingness to start construction was strong, and the inventory of receiving stations continued to increase
.
With the recent cold wave cooling down, the external transmission increment of the receiving station is large, and the pressure on inventory and shipment has been eased
.
As of December 1, 58 of the 133 domestic LNG plants were overhauled, suspended, reported or sold domestically, with an overall external operating rate of 56%.

From the perspective of demand, with the rapid drop in temperature, the consumption of residents and enterprises has increased significantly, and demand has formed a support
for the LNG market.

From the perspective of cost, the price of raw gas auctions in the northwest has increased, and the cost pressure of liquid plants has risen, supporting the rise in LNG prices
.
On November 29, PetroChina West Company carried out online trading of LNG plant gas in the first week of December, and finally 35 million cubic meters of resources were traded at a price of 2.
58~2.
64 yuan / cubic meter, and the mainstream cost accounting is expected to be 4321~4408 yuan, which is 246~333 yuan
higher than the lowest cost of the previous tiered gas price.
Driven by rising costs, plants are looking forward
to a rebound in LNG prices.

However, Yang Yan believes that the trend of the LNG market in the later stage still needs to continue to pay attention to downstream demand
.
The cold wave weather is difficult to sustain, and as the temperature rises slightly, the demand may weaken after the end of the
city-fired replenishment.
In addition, the epidemic prevention and control has led to poor regional resource circulation and a decline in vehicle LNG consumption; Although the demand of industrial users has rebounded due to the economic advantages of LNG, the "pay-as-you-go" policy of pipeline gas has led to limited
substitution.

The operating rate of some plants in the main LNG producing areas continues to be high, and there is still a certain pressure on
shipments.
In addition, on November 30, the bidding volume of non-contract LNG resources of Southern Company in the first half of December was 85 million cubic meters, an increase of 3 million cubic meters from November, which predicts that the pipeline gas supply will remain abundant
in December.

"On the whole, short-term supply and demand pressure has been eased, and domestic LNG prices are expected
to rise.
" However, without substantial improvement in the medium and long-term supply and demand pattern, the upside of LNG prices will be limited
.
Temperature changes are still a key factor
affecting the later trend of LNG.
Yang Yan analyzed
.

Longzhong information analysis believes that the current north-south LNG market has a price difference of more than 1,000 yuan, and some northwest resources can flow into East China and South China
.
However, if the price of the northwest LNG plant rebounds too quickly, the arbitrage window will be closed immediately, and it is recommended that the high-level plant take this opportunity to drain more warehouses and reduce the liquid level, so that it can grasp the price initiative when the next round of weather cools
.