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Central bank rate hikes in major economies continue to be bearish for oil markets, and fears of a global recession appear to be pushing oil markets into a longer-term downward
spiral.
On Thursday (September 8), international oil prices continued to come under pressure, continuing to hit a new low
since January.
Central bank rate hikes are negative for commodity prices
.
The European Central Bank will unveil its new policy on Thursday and expects a sharp 75 basis point rate hike to combat soaring
inflation.
The market expects the probability of the Fed's third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike this month to be close to 80%.
Fed officials said on Wednesday (September 7) that they still do not believe that the United States has passed the worst stage of inflation fears, suggesting that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates
sharply.
With inflation far from its 2% target, the Fed has reason to continue its hawkish stance
.
Given the large overnight drop in oil prices and the fact that oil prices have not effectively broken below the support around the January 24 low of 81.
90, there is also an opportunity
for a shock adjustment or a moderate rebound in the short term.
Haitong Futures analysts said in a report that oil price trends are being affected
by various external forces such as the "European-Russian energy war".
But they point out that any consensus between the West and Iran on resuming the nuclear deal, and the lifting of the ban on Iranian oil exports, the potential impact will also be enormous
.
And after years of back-and-forth, a new Iran nuclear deal now seems likely as negotiations have intensified in recent months
.
As the United States gets closer to a new nuclear deal with Iran and wants to resume crude imports from the oil-rich nation, critics say good relations with Iran will be crucial
if the United States wants to benefit from its oil output.
Fearing that Iran might turn to Russia, many countries are likely to seek a clear partnership
with Iran before a nuclear deal is reached.
Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, said: "Energy traders seem skeptical of any rebound as they digest a host of global economic challenges, supply uncertainty, and fears
of looming crude oil demand being disrupted.
”
Similarly, OPEC+'s symbolic 100,000 barrels per day production cut in October also caused oil prices to briefly rebound
earlier this week.
Once the market digested these symbolisms and returned to fundamentals, oil prices resumed bearish activity
.