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Trade Service
The center of gravity of Shanghai copper has moved
upward this week.
The weekly average settlement price of the current month contract was 71232 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton per day; The average price of the previous week was 71214 yuan / ton, up 0.
03%
from the previous week.
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has heated up again, and the situation is uncertain, stimulating the market risk aversion to heat up again, suppressing the copper trend, and copper prices weakened
slightly.
In the market, in the week of February 18, domestic spot copper prices remained stable
after the high level.
The average price of Yangtze River nonferrous metal net 1# copper was 71534 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton per day; The average price of the previous week was 71466 yuan / ton, up 68 yuan / ton compared with last week, up 0.
10%
from the previous month.
Fundamentally, the overall capacity utilization rate of copper pipe enterprises in January 2022 was 76.
23%, down 3.
9% year-on-year and 4.
65% month-on-month from 80.
7%
in the previous month.
At the same time, under the strength of new and old infrastructure investment, the off-season is expected to turn stronger and positive, strengthening price resilience
.
The supply of copper concentrate on the supply side gradually recovered, copper concentrate TC continued to recover, and copper concentrate production remained high in January
.
There is no significant change
in supply and demand.
On the macro front, the geopolitical situation in Europe was fanned by the US authorities, market risk appetite deteriorated rapidly, and copper prices weakened
slightly.
Recently, energy prices have rebounded sharply, and the spot price of WTI crude oil has returned to a high of
$90 per barrel.
This means that the commodity pull on inflation will remain in the near term
.
Qualcomm has repeatedly challenged the Fed's bottom line, but the March rate hike expectation has been fully priced in by the market, and if the Fed does not exceed expectations of "hawkish" copper prices are expected to continue to remain volatile
.
At the current node, macro long and short are intertwined, domestic and foreign policies diverge from each other, and the spot situation is also different, domestic seasonal accumulation, foreign continuous destocking, maintaining the judgment of high copper prices
.
If the spot is tight in stages and the accumulation is less than expected, the price may be strong
.
