The center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum continues to move up, and the short-term growth rate is expected to slow down

In terms of the external market, the epidemic situation in Europe has worsened, the US election has made waves again, the fiscal stimulus agreement is still uncertain, the market lacks actual benefits, the weekly Lun aluminum rebound was blocked, fell into a high volatile market, the highest intraday touched 1859 US dollars / ton, a new high since August 2019, and then around 1850 shock adjustment, as of the domestic close, Lun aluminum prices at 1856, weekly increase of 0.
51%; Paying attention to the further trend of the US election and stimulus policies, it is expected that Lun Aluminum will continue to fluctuate at a high level, paying attention to the 1820-1880 range shock
.

On the macro front, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the global economy will contract by 4.
4% in 2020, up 0.
8 percentage points
from its June forecast.
China's industrial production and demand recovered steadily in September, and positive changes are increasing; Negotiations on the US fiscal stimulus package remain deadlocked, the labor market recovery is difficult, and the economic outlook remains uncertain; Eurozone economic confidence in October was much lower than expected, and the outbreak of the second epidemic in Europe weighed on market risk appetite
.

In terms of the market, it is difficult for holders to hold up prices, because they are worried about falling prices, shipments are more active, the market supply is acceptable, because futures are facing delivery and exchange months, downstream enterprises are more cautious in receiving goods, and the overall market transaction is average
。 East China, the accumulation of inventory after the holiday, the drag on aluminum prices, and the macro surface has no actual favorable boost, last week aluminum prices fell into shock adjustment, the overall fluctuation space is not large, East China spot aluminum multiple tests 15,000 unsuccessful, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum quotation between 14930-14970 yuan / ton, spot premium 270 yuan; South China: As of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot tickets was between 15060-15160 yuan / ton, an increase slightly inferior to that in East China; The overall performance of the South China market during the week was tepid, traders were less motivated to enter the market, and the transaction was mostly reflected in the fact that downstream enterprises just needed to stock up
.

In terms of stocks, last week's domestic social electrolytic aluminum stocks were 118,000 tons in Shanghai, 22.
1 tons in Wuxi, 200,000 tons in the South China Sea, 73,000 tons in Hangzhou, 53,000 tons in Gongyi, 46,000 tons in Tianjin, 3,000 tons in Chongqing, 5,000 tons in Linyi, and a total of 719,000 tons
in the consumption area of aluminum ingots.

Electrolytic aluminum prices continue to move up, while cost prices remain low, aluminum plant profits are considerable, stimulate new production capacity launch, need to be vigilant of the pressure brought by the supply side, short-term expected Shanghai aluminum growth will slow down, further rise needs more favorable stimulation, wait and see for the time being, it is expected that next week Shanghai aluminum 1.
45-15,000 range fluctuations
.