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Recently, the main contract price of methanol has continued to fall from a high of 2850 yuan/ton to around 2400 yuan/ton, with a maximum drop of 15%
.
The recent supply and demand of methanol has shifted from a balance to a looser situation, and it has entered a seasonal accumulation phase, with prices under pressure
Fulfilling seasonal accumulation expectations
June to September is the seasonal accumulation phase of methanol, mainly due to the increase in supply and the decrease in demand
.
On the supply side, the domestic maintenance period ended, construction started to pick up, and overseas supply also resumed simultaneously
.
As of June 10, the domestic operating rate of methanol was 78.
9%, an increase of 7.
3 percentage points from the previous month.
In addition, 1.
In terms of demand, the current operating rate of outsourced methanol-to-olefin enterprises is 95.
77%, which is temporarily maintained at a relatively high level.
At present, both the inland factory inventory and the coastal port inventory are increasing.
The inventory trend verifies the current situation of supply increase and demand decrease
The expected seasonal accumulation of methanol is relatively clear, with a discount of about 80 yuan/ton for the 2109 contract.
The current futures market has fulfilled the expected weakening of the methanol spot
Low valuations and costs drive upward
Methanol is in the middle of the industrial chain
.
There is a gap in the supply and demand of thermal coal at the raw material end throughout the year.
Recently, due to local accidents, the supply of production areas has been limited, coupled with the arrival of the peak summer demand for thermal coal, the current situation of tight supply continues, and coal prices have remained strong
In general, methanol is in the seasonal accumulation phase, but expectations of weaker spot prices have been fulfilled, and there is not much room for supply and demand to drive methanol futures prices down
.
Methanol currently has a low valuation level in the industry chain.
It is expected that the raw material will drive the absolute price of methanol upward, while the stabilization and rebound of downstream olefins will open up space for methanol
