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This Tuesday Shanghai aluminum morning opened at 14085 yuan / ton, after the opening of the long and short game fierce, Shanghai aluminum wide range oscillation, the center of gravity of the transaction has shifted, the afternoon narrow range at 14180 yuan / ton line, afternoon bulls strong entry to pull up aluminum prices, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, touched 14435 yuan / ton, the entity recorded a high since September 2014, closed at 14415 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai aluminum's rise this round is mainly due to the entry of funds with environmental protection policies and other news, while holding manufacturers cooperate with the plate to control the pace of shipments, although the spot inventory has exceeded one million, but the market can circulate a limited
supply.
It is worth noting that the downstream performance is afraid of high prices, the warehouse output is low, and the post-holiday purchase replenishment market has not been opened
.
Short-term aluminum prices may still have upside
.
In terms of external trading, Lun aluminum opened at 1872.
5 US dollars / ton in the morning, the center of gravity slowly moved up after the opening, stable at 1882 US dollars / ton at noon, boosted by the domestic market in the afternoon, Lun aluminum rose rapidly, once touched 1895 US dollars / ton, recorded a new high since May 2015, the high level quickly gave up nearly half of the rise after a while, but then repaired the decline, as of 16:14 Lun aluminum 1893.
5 US dollars / ton, it is expected that Lun aluminum still has upside
.
In terms of the market, aluminum futures fluctuated upward before noon that month
.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 13780-13810 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 180-170 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 13780-13810 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 13770-13790 yuan / ton
。 Smelters stabilize a large number of shipments, spot to the next month discount of 300 yuan / ton around, traders on the future futures spot price difference divergence, believing that because of the excess supply of spot after the month after the price difference will not narrow traders actively bargain for high shipments, traders who believe that the futures spot price difference still has room to operate actively buy and sell the period, downstream enterprises are afraid of heights and wait and see emotions breed, the overall transaction is concentrated on traders' speculation
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum rose to 14240 yuan / ton that month, an increase of more than 200 yuan, and the holders were reluctant to sell, although the middlemen had the willingness to receive the goods but it was difficult to find the source of goods, and there was almost no transaction
.
In terms of the industry, Zhuochuang information statistics show that in January 2017, the average production cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 13,870 yuan / ton, the weighted average cost was 13,000 yuan / ton, and the total operating capacity of the country was 37.
22 million tons, and nearly 40% of the operating capacity was in a loss
.
On the market, Shanghai aluminum increases its position upward, short-term funds dominate the market, and aluminum prices may still have upside
.
In the medium and long term, if the supply pressure increases in the future, it is not conducive to the continued upward trend of aluminum prices, and the lower cost and production reduction expectations are supported, and the space below is not expected to be large, and it is expected to maintain range volatility
.
