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In April, the cost of electrolytic aluminum remained at 13200 yuan / ton - 13800 yuan / ton, and the overall fluctuation range was not large
.
Under the continuous surge in aluminum prices, the profit of electrolytic aluminum rose from 3,500 yuan / ton in early April to about 5,000 yuan / ton, and the downstream operating rate was almost at the saturation point
of production capacity.
This year, the overall level of fundamentals is in a tight balance of supply and demand margin, and in April, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum gradually tend to balance from oversupply to even a small shortage
.
At present, the water level of electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.
115 million tons, and the cumulative destocking in April is 136,000 tons, on the one hand, some aluminum ingots were converted into finished product inventory in advance, so that this year's aluminum ingot social inventory level has always been at a historical low level, and the early destocking speed is slow to lower the market's expectations for peak season performance, forming a pattern of "peak season is not busy
".
However, on the other hand, after the downstream accumulation was insufficient and consumption turned good in the later stage, the price was gradually transmitted to the terminal, and the demand accelerated to drive the overall plate to the high altitude of Wanba, and then continued to explore Wanjiu
.
In May, enterprises increased production and resumed production one after another, affected by supply-side disturbances in April, and some of the slight decline in output due to "misalignment" will gradually return to place, and electrolytic aluminum production in May will rise again according to the trend of previous years; In terms of demand, the speed of aluminum rods and other processed products out of the warehouse is accelerating week by week, real estate, power grid and home appliances and other terminal demand has increased significantly, new energy vehicles due to the face of some "core shortage" problems orders have declined, but the overall terminal demand margin is good, if there is no new adjustment at the policy end in May, the pattern of electrolytic aluminum supply and demand may continue
.
At present, the speed of aluminum ingot destocking has certain signs of decline, optimistic that the price center of gravity will continue to move up, but the subsequent upward momentum has cooled
.