The center of gravity of aluminum continues to rise in the short term, which is still dominated by oscillation

At present, the domestic epidemic has been effectively contained, but the overseas situation is not optimistic
.
Among them, the new confirmed cases in Europe Italy and Spain have declined and entered a period of easperation
.
The number of new confirmed cases in the United States is still at a high level, and the inflection point of the epidemic has not yet appeared
.
The impact of the epidemic on the economies of various countries has also begun to be gradually felt
.
Among them, total retail sales in the United States fell by 8.
7% month-on-month in March, the largest month-on-month decline since World War II
.
At the same time, due to the late entry of the national emergency in the United States, the downward pressure on the US economy is expected to be greatest
in the second quarter, especially in April.
Separately, the final manufacturing PMI in March was 44.
5, the lowest level since July 2012, and the unemployment rate in the eurozone was 7.
3% in February, the lowest since
2012.
Overall, the downward pressure on the global economy in the second quarter is huge, and macro risks still exist
.

Recently, the domestic alumina price has continued to fall, the average price of alumina is as low as 2064 yuan / ton, and most domestic alumina plants have been in a loss state
.
Due to the continuous decline in domestic aluminum prices, domestic alumina is in a situation
of strong supply and weak demand.
At the same time, the overseas epidemic continues to ferment, the impact on foreign aluminum ingot consumer enterprises is becoming more and more obvious, the demand for alumina has further weakened, and the price of Australian flour CIF to China has fallen to 240 US dollars / ton
.
Some overseas alumina plants have begun to stop production, and if alumina prices remain low, the shutdown capacity may be further expanded
.

With the decline of alumina prices, the cost of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline, the loss range of aluminum plants has narrowed, coupled with the recent slight increase in aluminum prices, the momentum of low-cost aluminum plants to reduce production in the later period may weaken
.
ALD data shows that an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Liaoning plans to start stopping production capacity of 230,000 tons this week, an aluminum company in Chongqing reduces production capacity by about 96,000 tons, and an aluminum company in Yunnan plans to reduce production by 150,000 tons in the form of grooving, plus the shutdown capacity that began in early March, the cumulative production of domestic electrolytic aluminum has been reduced by 654,000 tons, and the cumulative production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is intended to be reduced by 1.
076 million tons (including reduced and suspended production).

In April, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is in a state of decline, and the social inventory on Thursday fell by 112,000 tons year-on-year to 1.
495 million tons
.
Downstream aluminum rod inventories fell 0.
52 million tonnes from last Thursday to 164,900 tonnes
.
On the one hand, some aluminum rod manufacturers have a bullish mentality and buy cast rods for inventory
when the price of aluminum ingots is low.
On the other hand, the epidemic situation abroad is severe, and export orders are restricted
.
Domestic sales have not fully recovered, and follow-up orders have declined, resulting in not too much
aluminum rod shipments.
Another downstream product, aluminum plate, strip foil, accounts for a larger proportion of export and is more affected
.
From the perspective of further downstream consumer terminals, although the two major sectors of real estate and automobiles have rebounded sharply month-on-month, the year-on-year decline is still obvious
.
Overall, the destocking of aluminum ingot spot inventory has not been effectively transmitted to the consumer terminal, and although consumption has picked up slightly in stages, it is difficult to be optimistic
overall.

At present, macro risks still exist, and a slight increase in aluminum prices in the short term will inhibit the momentum of some aluminum plants to reduce production, while short-term improvement in consumption and inventory decline will improve
market expectations.
However, in the medium and long term, before the scale of upstream production reduction is not further expanded and consumption continues to improve, the fundamentals will be in a situation of weak supply and demand for a long time, and aluminum prices are still dominated by oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to cautiously chase higher
.