The bullish atmosphere is heavier, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
retail sales rose 0.
3% month-on-month in October, the lowest increase in six months, and the growth rate last month was revised down 0.
3 percentage points to 1.
6%.

(2) EU and Brexit negotiators begin a last-ditch effort to avoid a disorderly Brexit at the end of December
.
(3) China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in October increased by 9.
7% year-on-year to 3.
2 million tons, setting a monthly record
.
China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production from January to October increased by 3.
5% year-on-year to 30.
629 million tons
.

Spot analysis: On November 18, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15730-15770 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15750 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 160 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that supply is still tight, cargo holders are holding prices, downstream wait-and-see stops, and the overall transaction is not good
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 125784 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 350 tons; On November 17, LME aluminum stocks were 1,416,700 tons, an increase of 2,925 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contracts were 84156 lots, an increase of 1806 lots per day, 101884 short positions were held daily, 2004 lots were increased daily, net short positions were 17728 lots, a daily increase of 198 lots, long and short positions increased, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On November 18, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply in 2012
.
The news of the new crown vaccine has warmed up the market risk sentiment, coupled with the improvement of the Brexit negotiations, which has kept the US index under pressure; Domestic electrolytic aluminum market demand maintained a good performance, domestic spot inventory continued to deteriorate, now close to the low level at the beginning of the year, the tight supply of goods makes the market price willingness is higher, aluminum price performance is relatively strong
.
However, the global pandemic situation continues to deteriorate, and the economic outlook remains risky; Coupled with the continued weakening of alumina prices, the high profit of electrolytic aluminum production will stimulate the production capacity of aluminum plants to accelerate the launch, which will pose a resistance
to aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2012 contract increase of Shanghai aluminum continued to rise strongly, and the bullish atmosphere was heavier, and short-term volatility was expected
.