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On Monday, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, with the highest 14850 yuan / ton and the lowest 14410 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 14825 yuan / ton, up 3.
17% from the previous trading day's close; In the external market, LME aluminum fluctuated at a high level, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1843.
5 US dollars / ton, down 0.
24%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) The global epidemic rebounded violently, and after Germany and France announced the lockdown, the United Kingdom, Austria, and Portugal followed suit
.
(2) According to Mysteel data, as of October 30, 83 electrolytic aluminum plants in production across the country had a total inventory of 69,000 tons, down 02,000 tons from the previous period and 03,000 tons
from the same period last month.
Spot analysis: On November 2, spot A00 aluminum reported 15030-15070 yuan / ton, the average price was 15050 yuan / ton, up 220 yuan / ton
daily.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that supply improved, traders shipped positively, but downstream feared heights, and transactions were weak
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 92,125 tons, a daily decrease of 4,763 tons; On October 30, LME aluminum stocks were 1462925 tons, an increase of 175 tons
per day.
As of the week ended October 30, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported at 233346 tons, a weekly decrease of 4431 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2012 contract are 73852 lots, a daily increase of 13554 lots, short positions are 84879 lots, a daily increase of 15999 lots, net short positions are 11027 lots, a daily increase of 2445 lots, long and short are increased, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On November 2, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply in 2012
.
The surge in global coronavirus cases triggered safe-haven demand, and dovish signals from the central banks of Canada and Australia extended the dollar index to the upside; The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is also gradually released, and the high profits of aluminum plants have also stimulated the release of idle production capacity, and the pressure on aluminum prices has gradually increased
.
However, the performance of domestic demand is acceptable, aluminum companies are gradually rising, the market supply is tight, and stimulate a large inflow of overseas sources, and the recent inventory of both cities has declined, aluminum prices are strong
.
Technically, the main 2012 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased sharply, and the bull atmosphere was heavier, and it is expected to run
strongly in the short term.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long lightly around 14700 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14600 yuan / ton
.
