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On Thursday, the main monthly 1707 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 13,870 yuan, with an intraday high of 13,940 yuan and a low of 13,685 yuan, and closed at 13,845 at the end of the day, up 10 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
Recent poor data in China has caused concerns about industrial metal demand, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly after the shock during the day, lack of good news support, aluminum market after the upside space is not large, it is recommended to maintain the wait-and-see
.
According to a report by US consulting firm HarborIntelligence, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are too high relative to fundamentals, and forecasts may fall into the range of $1676-1836/mt
.
In terms of inventory, the latest statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum spot stocks show that Shanghai area 262,000 tons, Wuxi 430,000 tons, Hangzhou 79,000 tons, Gongyi 70,000 tons, South China Sea 354,000 tons, the total inventory of the five places is 1.
195 million tons, down 31,000 tons
from last Thursday.
In terms of news, the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in April, the demand for the automotive end market was weak.
Vehicle production totaled 2.
138 million units, down 1.
9% y/y, and sales totaled 2.
084 million units, respectively
, down 1.
9% y/y.
From January to April, vehicle production totaled 9.
271 million units, up 5.
4% y/y, and sales totaled 9.
086 million units, up 4.
6% y/y, and 0.
3 and 1.
5 percentage points
y/y.
The domestic aluminum market supply and demand performance continues to be weak, although the high level of spot inventory has declined, but whether it has continuity is difficult to say, and the year-on-year decline in automobile production and sales has verified our previous concerns
about the automotive industry.
Overall, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are still weak
.
However, technically the aluminum price fell to the support level of 13700-13800 area, the previously recommended light short order continues to hold, but it is not recommended to continue to increase the position, 1707 stop loss 13900 yuan / ton
.
