The "14th Five-Year" synthetic rubber industry should speed up structural adjustment

Author: Xu Yi Ye Qiang Wang Lili Chen Hongxia

Author unit: Chemical Sales Company, Beijing Research Institute of Chemical Industry

The world synthetic rubber industry began in the 1930s and rose with the development of the automobile industry and petrochemical industry.

Current status and development trend of raw material butadiene

The core raw material of synthetic rubber is butadiene, and the synthetic rubber produced with butadiene as the raw material accounts for more than 80% of the total output of synthetic rubber.

In 2019, the world's butadiene production capacity was 15.

In 2019, the world's total butadiene consumption was 11.

Most of the butadiene in my country comes from C4, a by-product of ethylene cracking, accounting for 91% of the total production capacity, and the rest is produced by the butene oxidative dehydrogenation process.

In recent years, my country's butadiene output has shown a trend of increasing year by year.

In 2019, the domestic production of butadiene was 3 million tons, the import volume was 300,000 tons, and the consumption was about 3.

Current Status and Development Trend of Synthetic Rubber

According to statistics from the World Association of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IISRP), the global synthetic rubber production capacity in 2019 was 20.

In 2019, the world's total production of synthetic rubber was 15.

In the 15 years from 2005 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of domestic synthetic rubber production capacity reached 16%, the average annual growth rate of output reached 7.

With the changes in downstream demand, the structure of synthetic rubber varieties has also undergone significant changes.

As of the end of 2019, there were 48 synthetic rubber manufacturers in Mainland China with a total production capacity of 5.

Affected by domestic market demand, my country's synthetic rubber industry has developed rapidly in recent years.

There are 14 Taiwan-funded, foreign-funded, and Sino-foreign joint ventures with a total production capacity of 1.

　　In terms of imports, in 2019, the eight major types of synthetic rubber in mainland China imported a total of 1.

　　In terms of the proportion of imported rubber species, in the past three years, the largest import volume is still styrene butadiene rubber (including SSBR), accounting for about 30%.

　　Against the background of increasingly severe global resource and environmental issues, developed countries have successively issued regulations and decrees for chemicals and tires.
The European Union promulgated the REACH regulation in 2007, the tire labeling law was promulgated in 2012, and Japan and the United States implemented the tire labeling system in 2010 and 2013 respectively.
Mainland China formulated the green tire technical specifications (draft) in 2014.
The promulgation of these regulations has raised the technical threshold of tires, prompting tire manufacturers to focus on developing and producing green tires with low rolling resistance, high wet skid resistance, and low noise, and to extend the service life of tires.

　　In the production of green tires, some traditional raw materials can no longer meet their needs.
SSBR, NdBR, HIIR, etc.
have the advantages of significantly improving certain properties of tires and are sought after by the market; the future growth of synthetic rubber consumption will mainly be driven by China and India; SBC elastomers The proportion of styrene-butadiene, solution-polymerized styrene-butadiene, rare-earth butadiene and halogenated butyl rubber is increasing year by year; the domestic synthetic rubber products have a serious surplus, but high-end products and new application fields still have a lot of room for development; domestic imports of synthetic rubber each year are about 130 The amount of imported substitutes is increasing year by year.
With the oversupply of domestic butadiene, domestic tire and shoe manufacturers build factories overseas, and domestic synthetic rubber exports will become a trend.

　　Problems in my country's synthetic rubber industry

　　1.
The equipment is scattered, small in scale, and low-level repeated construction is serious.

　　Since 2000, some newly-built ethylene plants have not been equipped with synthetic rubber plants, and have not given full play to the advantages of raw material/product integration.
The important strategic resources, butadiene and isoprene, are mainly sold as commodities, which will increase the transportation cost and processing of raw materials.
Costs and increased transportation safety risks have also led to a large number of private enterprises blindly and low-level repeated construction of synthetic rubber devices across the country in the absence of raw materials and technology, resulting in scattered installations, small production capacity and serious surplus, and industry losses forced a large number of The installations that have been built have been shut down, resulting in a huge waste of social wealth.

　　2.
There are many resistances to new product development, and product advantages are not prominent.

　　The entry of new products into the market requires an entry period, a development period, and an incubation period.
It requires policy support and efforts from all parties.
The current situation is that production, marketing, research and use are fighting each other, and the development of new products and the cultivation of the market are difficult.
For decades, Shun Ding has been a BR9000 brand that has won the world, and milk polystyrene butadiene is ESBR1500, 1502, and 1712.
The market demand is increasing rapidly and imported products, such as halogenated butyl, dissolved polybutylene and rare earth.
The development and promotion of butadiene, etc.
are slow; modified solution polystyrene butadiene, hydrogenated nitrile, high-end fluororubber, ethylene-propylene rubber required for UHV, medical and chemical protection materials, etc.
, still lack technical support.

　　3.
Lack of in-depth theoretical research and applied research.

　　The research on synthesis mechanism is not deep enough, there are few original inventions, and product development is always carried out on the basis of similar foreign technologies.
Product quality and quality always have a certain gap with foreign high-end products.
my country's synthetic rubber manufacturers are weak in processing and application research, unable to provide users with corresponding technical services, and unable to guide market consumption.
The application of synthetic rubber relies too much on the tire industry.
Nearly 50% of synthetic rubber relies on tire digestion, and applications in non-tire fields need to be further developed.
Affected by the low prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, the development of reclaimed rubber technology and the recycling of waste rubber have stalled.

　　4.
The level of production equipment and digital automation is lagging behind.

　　Production equipment and process flow have not changed much in the past few decades.
The polymerizer has been enlarged, improved quality and removed heat with little improvement, and the monomer concentration can not be increased; the energy consumption of condensation is high, and the amount of waste gas and wastewater cannot be reduced; post-treatment still often cannot stabilize production And affect product quality, ultra-high molecular weight, ultra-low molecular weight products cannot be opened; digital automation control level is seriously lagging, product quality stability cannot be guaranteed; single-line production capacity and output are low, and costs are high.

　　5.
The overseas layout is lagging behind.

　　A large number of shoe-making and tire companies have built factories overseas.
Synthetic rubber companies have not huddled with their customers to go to sea, and they have not followed their downstream to develop overseas factories.
They lack the ability of European, American, Japanese and Korean companies to cooperate closely with upstream and downstream to jointly develop overseas markets.
And motivation.

　　"14th Five-Year" Synthetic Rubber Development Recommendation

　　During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the oversupply of general synthetic rubber products will continue.
The production capacity of butadiene, the main raw material, will increase sharply, and the price of butadiene will remain at a lower price.
The new planting area of ​​natural rubber as an alternative product will be greatly reduced in the past decade.
The supply and demand will gradually balance, the price of natural rubber will rise, and the profit of synthetic rubber will be significantly better than the "13th Five-Year Plan".

　　According to the current understanding of the expansion plan for synthetic rubber during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, synthetic rubber will add 860,000 tons of synthetic rubber production capacity and reach 6.
7 million tons per year in 2025, mainly concentrated in SBC, solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber, nitrile rubber and cis Several varieties of butadiene rubber.
Demand is estimated at an annual growth rate of 3% to estimate apparent consumption.
By 2025, synthetic rubber consumption will reach 5.
4 million tons, and the industry's average operating rate will be 77%.

　　1.
Speed ​​up mergers and reorganization, eliminate outdated production capacity, and build new equipment in an orderly manner.

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