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Comprehensive Thai media reported on November 29 that Thai Petroleum (PTT) expects Dubai crude oil prices to average $71-76 per barrel in 2022, higher than this
year's average of $68-71 per barrel.
Oil prices for all products are forecast to rise
in 2022 due to the gradual recovery of the economy after the epidemic improves, the increasing demand for oil, and the shortage of gas and coal power, which has led more power companies to switch to more boiler oil.
Both the 23 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and the United States will increase crude oil production, which will lead to weaker
oil prices starting in the fourth quarter of next year.
At the same time, the total refining margin GRM is expected to rise to $4-5 per barrel in 2022, up from the average of $
3-4 per barrel this year.
The average price of Asian Spot LNG next year is $17.
8/MM BTU, compared to $15.
5/MM this year, due to low LNG reserves in Europe and a global trend towards clean energy rather than the use of fossil fuels, resulting in increasing demand for LNG in China
.
As for the petrochemical price trend in 2022, whether olefins or aromatics, there is a downward trend, as new capacity is put on the market from the end of this year to the middle of next year, it is estimated that the price of high-density polyethylene (HDPE plastic), polypropylene (PP plastic) and benzene will fall by 2-4% compared with this year, while the price of paraxylene (PX) will increase by 2-4%.
PTT's outlook for 2022 will improve, driven by a recovery
in oil and petrochemical demand.
With regard to the E&P business, selling prices will be positively impacted by higher oil prices and costs have improved
following the investment of the Exploration and Production Subsidiary (PTTEP) in Oman 61 Field.
In the gas business, demand is expected to pick up slightly this year, with an average growth of 3%
over the next five years.
As for the direction of natural gas prices, it is expected to rise
next year with boiler oil prices.
