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After the Spring Festival, especially since the resumption of work on the 10th, PVC is currently showing a lack of demand, a decline in its own operation, a burst of inventory, and prices in high-cost areas falling below cost
.
From the perspective of short-term supply and demand alone, fundamentals coexist
long and short.
However, with the passage of time, the recovery of PVC terminals is more difficult than the transportation obstacles in the middle and upper reaches, and the fundamentals will further deteriorate
.
The easing expectations at the macro end, the support of the real estate industry that has seen signs, and the easing expectation will be positive for futures prices
.
In the short term, supply and demand point of view, the fundamentals coexist
long and short.
The weakness of the supply and demand side is more certain, but the futures price is not only determined by the fundamentals of the variety itself, but also the overall expectation of the macro will have a significant impact
on the price.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, domestic liquidity has clearly shown a loose trend, and the policy strength of macro-adjustment is increasing
.
On February 7, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a number of tax support policies in one day, involving tax support policies for enterprises, individual income tax policies, donation tax policies, exemptions from some administrative fees and government funds
.
The central bank released a total of 1.
7 trillion yuan of liquidity on February 2 and February 3, and the deputy governor of the central bank also hinted at the press conference on February 7 that the central bank was about to cut interest rates, saying that he expected the next MLF winning interest rate and the latest LPR on February 20 to fall with a high probability
.
Market analysts generally believe that due to the economic impact of the epidemic, loose monetary and fiscal policies are coming, active fiscal policies, and the easing of financing policies for real estate enterprises are worth looking forward to
.
Under this expectation, the macro end gives PVC obvious bullish expectations
from the perspective of liquidity and industrial stimulus.
Restrictions on the resumption of work will extend until April
.
70% of PVC terminals are used in real estate and related industries, among which the use of real estate in the post-cycle is large
.
At present, the time stipulated for the resumption of construction work in various regions is obviously slower than that of other industrial production industries, which is tantamount to the recovery of terminal demand for PVC will be slower
.
Downstream centralized replenishment is difficult to appear
.
Different from the upstream of PVC, PVC downstream enterprises mainly stop work during the Spring Festival, while PVC plants only reduce the operating rate and will not stop production
.
This is the backdrop
to the industry's seasonal accumulation.
Since the 10th, the best downstream start has only recovered 30%.
With such a low operating rate, it is obvious that the pre-holiday stocking can be used longer, and centralized replenishment will not appear
.
