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Last week, the European and American markets were in the holiday period around Christmas, the market trading was light, and London copper was in a narrow range; Shanghai copper, on the other hand, rose first and then suppressed, although it gave up some of its gains in the second half of the week, but it still rose 1.
24%
on the week.
Copper prices show a pattern
of internal strength and external weakness.
On the macro front, the market continues to pay attention to the changes in interest rate hike expectations in the United States and the economic situation
after the adjustment of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies.
On the supply and demand side, overseas supply disruptions continued, mass protests in Peru still affected local production and transportation, and a fire at Chile's port of Ventanas blocked local copper concentrate exports
.
The domestic supply of copper concentrate is relatively loose, and the newly expanded production capacity of refined copper smelting is gradually put into production, but the import window is narrowed, and the spot import supplement of refined copper is relatively limited
.
On the demand side, the end of the domestic year is about to superimpose the impact of the epidemic, the actual demand margin of the terminal has slowed down, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises has declined
.
During the holiday, the market trading atmosphere was light, the rise in copper prices inhibited some downstream market purchases, and the coverage of the epidemic continued to expand to suppress downstream consumption, and spot prices once turned to a discounted state
from the previous continuous premium.
At the end of the year, domestic and foreign inventories have accumulated significantly, and it is expected that the replenishment of import sources will still be limited, and the highlights of downstream consumption are difficult to find, and it is expected that inventories will maintain an increase
.
Overall, although the medium-term macro expectation is good, the domestic year-end demand off-season superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, the actual demand at the terminal is weak, although the global inventory is at a low level, but domestic and foreign exchanges have begun to accumulate, the support margin of inventory to copper prices weakened, and it is expected that copper short-term prices will show a weak trend
.
