Terminal demand weakened before the holiday The probability of low aluminum price fluctuations is greater

On the macro front, the US economic data did not exceed expectations, and the US dollar index maintained range-bound
volatility.
Domestically, the drag of the epidemic has basically subsided, and the domestic macro repair expectation continues to improve, superimposed on the promotion fee, investment and other policy directions, the domestic macro from the medium term, there is a lot
of benefits for aluminum.
However, at present, the economic data has not improved substantially, and the pace of optimistic expectations is slow
.

In terms of the market, the short-term demand for domestic aluminum ingots is expected
to weaken.
First, seasonal factors, after the winter, real estate and other industry projects have stagnated, terminal demand has shrunk significantly
.
Coupled with the severe cold weather, outdoor operations have been gradually suspended in the north, and the number of new orders in the industry has declined significantly, and the operating rate is expected to
decline.
Second, near the Spring Festival superimposed on the recent adjustment of domestic public health policies, most domestic enterprises have a decline in the arrival rate, downstream enterprises operating rate is not high, approaching the Spring Festival, downstream terminal demand weakened, some enterprises consider early holiday, double pressure to suppress downstream demand
.

In terms of inventory, on January 5, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 576,000 tons, an increase of 83,000 tons from the inventory on Thursday on December 29, 15,000 tons from the first day after New Year's Day, and a decrease of 200,000 tons
from the same period last year.
Electrolytic aluminum stocks are currently starting a trend of accumulation, with a weekly increase of 83,000 tons, although the total amount of electrolytic aluminum stocks is still at a low level, but the recent increase is rapid
.
In terms of regions, Wuxi ranked first in the increase in arrivals, with a weekly increase of 35,000 du angry; followed by Gongyi area, an increase of 24,000 tons; the South China Sea region also began to show a trend of accumulation this week after continuous storage reduction, with a weekly increase of 11,000 tons, and the cumulative increase in inventory in the three places by 70,000 tons
.

With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, domestic real estate projects have stagnated, terminal demand has gradually weakened, and electrolytic aluminum has begun to accumulate seasonally
.
The optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies, the factors that previously plagued poor transportation were gradually lifted, the warehouse arrival volume increased significantly, and the accumulation speed was faster than the market expected, although there are Guizhou electrolytic aluminum enterprises to reduce the load of the advantage, but the main contradiction in the current market is demand, and the accumulation speed
of electrolytic aluminum inventory needs to be paid attention to in the near future.
It is expected that short-term demand is difficult to improve greatly, the price is likely to find support near the cost line, the probability of price maintaining low volatility is large, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support
of 17500 yuan / ton operationally.