Tensions in the Middle East Ease The main forces of Shanghai and copper fluctuate a lot

Market focus: (1) ADP employment in the United States increased by 202,000 in December, beating expectations of 160,000 and the previous value of 124,000.

(2) The Ministry of Commerce revealed that China and the United States will sign the phase one agreement
next week.
(3) In 2020, the second batch of restricted copper scrap and crush approvals were 26,566 tons
.
(4) SMM expects that domestic electrolytic copper production will fall to 734,900 tons in January 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 0.
18%, and the decline in output is due to the impact of some refineries by capital problems and strict environmental monitoring, and production has decreased
to varying degrees.

Spot analysis: On January 9, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 48730-48830 yuan / ton, with an average price of 48780 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 140 yuan / ton
.
The market highlights the characteristics of oversupply, market dumpers are concentrated, the sentiment of holders is prominent, the lack of downstream buying, wet copper plummets, and a small amount of transactions are only possible with a discount of 100 yuan, and even as low as 140 yuan / ton
.
Copper prices rose slightly, market demand weakened significantly, and the downstream has gradually entered the state before the New Year, waiting and waiting to increase, the supply of goods is prominent, the supply is loose, and the transaction is weak
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 65,109 tons on Thursday, an increase of 826 tons per day; On January 8, LME copper stocks were 138,400 tons, down 2,525 tons per day, down 31 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2003 contract were 85256 lots, an increase of 3476 hands per day, short positions were 90081 lots, a daily increase of 3470 lots, net short positions were 4825 lots, a daily decrease of 6 lots, long and short increased, and net space decreased
.

The main force of Shanghai copper in 2003 fluctuated more
.
The US small non-farm payrolls data in December was strong, coupled with the easing of tensions in the Middle East, and the signing of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, market risk sentiment rebounded, and affected by capital and environmental protection issues, electrolytic copper production is expected to decline, Shanghai copper inventories have fallen recently, copper prices are strong, but the recent rise in the US dollar index, while the downstream shutdown demand at the end of the year has weakened, coupled with the uncertainty of the global economic outlook, putting pressure
on copper prices.
In terms of spot, copper prices have risen slightly, market demand has weakened significantly, and the downstream has gradually entered the state before the New Year, waiting and waiting to increase, the supply is abundant, the supply is loose, and the transaction is weak
.
Technically, the main 2003 contract daily MACD green column retracement, focusing on the 48700 level support, is expected to be strong
short-term volatility.