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In May, PVC showed a downward trend
of first oscillating and then breaking down.
Specifically, it lies in the game
between poor reality, policy expectations, and epidemic expectations.
With the sharp decline in Formosa Plastics' quotations, dismal real estate data, and the weakening of building materials, PVC fell below the 8450 line
.
On the macro front, wide credit and stable growth this year are the main tone of the domestic economy, and GDP growth is set at the level
of 5.
5%.
To this end, the engine that guides the domestic economy has returned to the traditional industries
of real estate and infrastructure.
It is reported that Shanghai's production and life will be fully and orderly unblocked from June 1; Increased government special debt; Unprecedented support for infrastructure
, real estate and automobiles.
It can be seen that the state is speeding up the implementation of the "package of policies to stabilize the economy"
.
In terms of coal, the supply and price stability continued, and the coal market strengthened slightly during the peak summer
.
The thermal coal 2209 contract is around
880 yuan / ton.
At the same time, COMEX crude hovered high (latest $113/barrel) as a 90% ban on Russian crude imports was reached with Europe during the summer driving season
.
Since the worst-case scenario occurs, crude oil may peak and fall
.
In terms of spot, the mainstream quotations in East China rose slightly last week to 8540 yuan / ton; The basis is +125 yuan/ton
.
For warehouse orders, the number of futures registered receipts was reduced to 4,204 lots (21,000 tons).
In terms of inventory, as of May 29, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 312,200 tons, +0.
16% week-on-week; +80.
25%
YoY.
Inventories are still increasing, and as usual, "destocking" will accelerate
in May-August.
This shows that the market is limited to destocking, and the inventory level is higher than in previous years
.
Whether the decline in inventories can accelerate depends on the resilience
of downstream demand.
This time, the rebound of the PVC futures market is not due to its own fundamentals; Mainly macro expectations
.
The price of calcium carbide on the cost side is weak, and the inventory of PVC companies has increased
due to poor demand.
Therefore, the bottom
still needs to be explored after the rebound.
It is expected that by late June, the PVC market will produce a wave of intermediate rebound due to the "Golden Nine" peak season; And it lasts until August
.
