Supported by extremely low inventories, the trend of Shanghai copper is under pressure

In terms of spot, on October 10, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 63230-63270 yuan / ton, up 470 yuan / ton; Liter 680-liter 720, down 20 yuan / ton
.
On the first trading day after the holiday, the trading performance of the spot market was average, merchants' quotations were delayed, and the high premium continued to affect downstream consumption, trading activity was low, and trading volume declined
.

In terms of inventories, as of October 7, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks increased by 3,575 tons, or 2.
55%, to 143775 tons; It has increased to a four-month high, and London copper stocks are now in an upward channel; As of October 10, the warehouse receipt of copper futures in the previous period was 3,729 tons, unchanged from the previous day; As of September 30, copper stocks in the previous period decreased by 6,438 tons, or 17.
45%, to 30,459 tons
.

On the supply side, according to the survey of 64 domestic copper rod sample enterprises, with a total production capacity of 2.
2215 million tons, domestic copper rod production in September 2022 was 107,000 tons, up 5.
89%
from the previous month.
The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in September was 57.
72%, up 1.
72% from the previous month; Among them, there are 12 enterprises with an annual production capacity of more than 50,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 59.
03%, an increase of 1.
03% from the previous month; There were 52 enterprises with an annual production capacity of less than 50,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.
4%, an increase of 3.
4%
from the previous month.
With the resumption of production downstream, the pressure of domestic squeeze is still very large, most smelter maintenance is basically over, and copper production will be significantly improved
.

In terms of demand, after returning from the holiday, silver ten expectations are general, and spot premiums at home and abroad are still in a high position, continuing to constrain downstream consumer demand
.
Coupled with the current strong reality and weak expectation structure facing deep back, downstream multi-pair low-price just need to order
.
However, the state has successively introduced favorable policies, especially in the real estate industry, making demand improvement expectations relatively strong, coupled with the high growth of power infrastructure and new energy vehicles, all of which have formed an effective supporting effect
on the demand side.

On the whole, the macro atmosphere continues to be uncalm, the stronger than expected performance of the US non-farm payrolls data makes it more likely that the Fed will raise interest rates aggressively, the US dollar index has rebounded continuously, and non-ferrous metals are under
pressure as a whole.
However, on the first trading day after the holiday, the trend of Shanghai copper was relatively resistant, and the intraday wide range of fluctuations ran and closed slightly higher
.
It is mainly still supported by extremely low domestic inventories, and this week's squeeze factors have also slightly supported copper prices, and there is a slight gap between supply and demand in the industrial chain, which is reflected in the continuous decline in inventories and the continued premium of domestic and foreign spots, so that Shanghai copper has relatively stabilized the trend
.
However, in the long run, copper futures are still suppressed by macro and the US dollar, the trend is difficult to say optimistic, superimposed on the silver peak season expectations are general, spot trading is light, Shanghai copper performance is not bright enough
.