Supported by demand recovery expectations Copper prices are expected to be more volatile in the short term

On Wednesday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai copper opened high and volatile, with the highest 68400 yuan / ton and the lowest 67250 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price of 67810 yuan / ton, up 1.
54% from the previous trading day's closing price; In the external market, LME copper pulled back slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 9195 US dollars / ton, down 0.
88%
on the day.

Market focus: (1) San Francisco Fed President Daly said that inflation is too low, tens of millions of Americans are still in the field of vision, and monetary policy must remain loose
for a period of time.
(2) At 21:15 Beijing time on Wednesday, the United States will release the ADP employment report for February, which is expected to increase by 180,000.

(3) Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, as of February 26, the operating rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and copper and aluminum production enterprises surveyed was 90.
5%, an increase of 7.
1 percentage points
over February 19.

Spot analysis: On March 3, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 67700-67950 yuan / ton, with an average price of 67825 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 1665 yuan / ton
.
Holders are reluctant to sell, downstream consumption is weak, and the overall transaction is limited
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 78,356 tons on Wednesday, a daily increase of 1,391 tons; On March 2, LME copper stocks were 73,700 tonnes, down 500 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2104 contract are 73084 lots, minus 3847 lots, short positions are 78509 lots, daily increase of 4 lots, net short positions are 5425 lots, daily increase of 3851 lots, more short increases, net short increases
.

Fed officials' speeches continued the recent dovish rhetoric, the market's concerns about the Fed's early interest rate hike eased, and the dollar index retreated; At the same time, the global vaccination effort is optimistic, and the global epidemic is showing signs of improvement, which is positive for market risk sentiment
.
The domestic copper mine supply of upstream domestic copper mines maintained a tight pattern, and the copper processing fee TC continued to decrease, resulting in high smelting costs
.
At present, the performance of domestic demand is still weak, but although domestic inventories have entered the accumulation cycle, they are still significantly lower than the same period of previous years; With the resumption of work by downstream companies after the Spring Festival and the expectation of overseas demand recovery, copper prices are still supported
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2104 contract is reduced, and the hourly MACD low golden cross is expected to be strong
in the short term.