Supply worries boost oil market Crude oil is expected to rise sharply at the opening after the holiday

Message surface

Data released by Baker Hughes, the oilfield services arm of General Electric, showed that in the week ending Oct.
7, AOL drilled 602 wells, two fewer than the previous week
.

According to Citi research, the overall decline of OPEC+ oil of 2 million b/d may be around 1 million b/d in practical terms, which will keep inventories low for a longer period of time
.
The final market impact will depend on the duration of the agreement, as OPEC+ decides to extend its cooperation statement until the end of
2023.

On October 5, the White House released a statement saying that US President Joe Biden was disappointed
by OPEC+ cuts to crude oil production quotas.
The U.
S.
Department of Energy will continue to release 10 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves
in November.

Zhuochuang information monitoring model shows that as of the close of October 7, the reference crude oil change rate of the 10th working day in China is 0.
35%, and it is expected that gasoline and diesel will be raised by 25 yuan / ton, because the adjustment range does not reach the red line of 50 yuan / ton, the retail price adjustment of refined oil products at 24 o'clock on October 10 will be stranded, which is also the first time since 2022
.

Institutional perspective

Ruida Futures:

The National Day long holiday price international crude oil futures price rose continuously, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil December futures contract was 97.
92 US dollars / barrel, a cumulative increase of 11.
3%; U.
S.
WTI crude oil futures contract for November was at $92.
64 a barrel, up 16.
5%.

The US non-farm payrolls data for September was better than expected, the unemployment rate fell to a more than two-and-a-half year low, the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike fears weighed on the market, the US stock market rally was hindered and retreated, and the US dollar index recovered
.
The European Union imposed oil sanctions on Russia, the G7 will set a ceiling on Russian oil prices, Russia's Nord Stream natural gas pipeline and the Crimean bridge were attacked, the situation in Ukraine was facing escalation, the OPEC+ meeting announced a sharp reduction in production by 2 million barrels / day from November, the reduction was far more than expected, supply worries boosted the oil market, and short-term crude oil futures prices showed strong volatility
.

Technically, it is expected that the SC2211 contract will open sharply higher, and the market tends to test the pressure of the 700 mark, and the short-term Shanghai crude oil futures price will show a strong volatility trend
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on short-term trading and pay attention to controlling risks
.

Shenyin Wanguo Futures:

International oil prices soared 12%
during the holiday season.
OPEC unexpectedly cut production by 2 million b/d
.
From the perspective of actual production, because OPEC production continued to fail to reach the quota in the early stage, the production reduction required was much smaller than the quota adjustment
.
Comparing August production with November quotas, the actual need to cut production by 850,000 b/d, with Saudi Arabia accounting for half of the share
.
After OPEC+ announced production cuts, US President Joe Biden said that OPEC+ production cuts were not necessary
.
U.
S.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.
S.
works every day to ensure low energy prices on the market, and the U.
S.
has made its views
clear to OPEC members.
The U.
S.
Department of Energy will supply an additional 10 million barrels of oil
from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve next month.
Crude oil is expected to rise sharply at the opening after the holiday, but the sustainability needs to be considered, and the US response measures
will be paid attention to in the later stage.