Supply will be constrained Rubber prices are expected to recover

The plunge in international crude oil prices in the early morning became the fuse of today's plunge, and Thailand's bidding on the first day had a stream auction, reflecting the sluggish demand sentiment in the upstream link, and under the real pressure of the main force of Shanghai rubber for the month, short positions entered the market, staging a sharp killing and falling market
.

In addition, the contradiction between CPI and PPI at the macro level is prominent, the intensive introduction of property market regulation suppresses market demand expectations, the sharp retracement of weight commodities also affects rubber, coupled with the weak fundamentals of rubber itself, it is difficult to stop the decline in the short term, but it has attracted buying, so Zhuochuang believes that the downside space is limited, 1709 contracts are held short, looking down at the 16500 line
.

From a fundamental point of view, the biggest negative factor at present has been best explained in the inventory of tire factories, although the current tire factory operating rate is relatively high to support the demand for rubber, and the expectation of 17 demand has been better, but according to the understanding of Zhuochuang Information, the current tire agent inventory is relatively full, the replacement market is still shrinking, showing that the terminal demand is not as good as expected
.

For the sharp decline in rubber, one of the main reasons for the plunge is that market investors have deviated from the expectations of rubber supply and demand, in addition, in the process of rising Shanghai rubber prices in the early stage, spot has not fully kept up, and now the entire market is in a normal value return process
.
This is not a big reversal in rubber prices, as an agricultural product, there is naturally a seasonal adjustment
on the supply side.

In addition, Thailand's rubber supply will be temporarily interrupted due to the traditional New Year Songkran festival coming next month, when rubber farmers will have a long holiday, rubber supply will be limited, so rubber prices are expected to rise in April and May, but the rebound height needs to be determined
according to the corresponding supply and demand comparison.

Although the price increase of the tire factory has also generated a certain confidence in the market, from the current inventory alone, it seems that the future sales pressure of rubber downstream is relatively large, which has also caused certain hidden worries
about the future demand of Tianjiao.