Supply-side production capacity further released to limit the momentum of Shanghai aluminum

Macro: On November 15, China, Japan and South Korea and other 15 countries signed RCEP, the regional economic cooperation agreement covers 1/3 of the world's population, the conclusion of RCEP will promote regional economic integration and coordinated development, promote regional trade freedom and global economic and trade cooperation in the context of the global economic and trade environment, China's a number of macroeconomic data recently released, strong performance will promote aluminum prices to continue to rise
.
The Pfizer vaccine has applied for emergency authorization in the United States, and the first batch of vaccines is expected to be released
on the US market in mid-December.

Supply side: supply-side smelter profits remain high, industry capacity will be further released in December, alumina industry operating rate continues to rise, and the supply side is weak
in the fourth quarter.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.

Stocks: LME stocks dematerialized 3,775 tonnes to 1,329,600 tonnes on Friday, compared with a slight accumulation of 288 tonnes to 214,600 tonnes last week, and warehouse receipts fell 2,674 tonnes to 80,672 tonnes
.
According to the data on December 07, compared with the statistics on December 03, social stocks continued to accumulate 08,000 tons, which was 615,000 tons, and the market excitement also eased
.
On the whole, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, which still forms a certain support
for the price.

Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices still maintain a low level of 2300 yuan, the current electrolytic aluminum industry profits have risen slightly, from a historical point of view, production profits are still in a high position, and high profits have continued for a long time
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in November, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.

In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.