Supply-side disturbances superimposed on the approaching peak season Shanghai aluminum is still prone to rise and fall

Specifically, although the power cuts in some areas on the supply side have eased, it takes time for short-term troughs to recover, and the short-term supply margin is weak; On the demand side, with the alleviation of power cuts in Henan and the arrival of the follow-up "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season, the consumption increment margin is strong
.

On Monday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly by 2,000 tons from Thursday to 743,000 tons, mainly due to the increase of 20,000 tons
in Gongyi's concentrated arrival inventory.
Qinghai electrolytic aluminum enterprises received a notice requiring orderly preparation for electricity consumption, and Ningxia also interviewed areas with high energy consumption for rectification, and there is a possibility
of power rationing in the two places.
The supply-side disturbance continues, and the peak season is approaching, and Shanghai aluminum is still prone to rise and fall
.

However, there are also certain "headwinds" in the market, such as Xinjiang affected by transportation, there is a large backlog of aluminum ingots on the platform, according to statistics, about 86,000 tons (the actual amount may only be half), this part of the aluminum ingots released to the market also has a certain amount of accumulation pressure
.
Moreover, aluminum prices are moving to a high level in early May, which may be under greater pressure
.
In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to risks such as weakening macro demand and reducing the tax rebate for aluminum exports
.