Supply-side balance reverses oil price rally and presses pause button

A few days ago, the United States announced the largest "storage dump" plan since the establishment of the oil reserve plan in 1974 - the release of 180 million barrels of strategic oil reserves in the next six months

Oil prices fall

According to data from Wenhua Finance, the main contracts of U.

A number of analysts interviewed by reporters from China Securities Journal believe that the U.

On the one hand, data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its February monthly report showed that OPEC oil production increased by 440,000 barrels per day in February to 28.

On the other hand, after the United States and the United Kingdom announced a ban on importing energy and petrochemical products from major countries on March 8, sanctions in the energy sector in Europe and the United States have not been further escalated

From the demand side, uncertainty over the outlook for global economic growth continues to cast a shadow over oil prices

"As of the Qingming holiday, the congestion index of China's 100 cities has dropped by 9.

Medium and long-term support

Judging from the crude oil market balance sheet in March, due to geopolitical factors, the original 2022 accumulative stockpile expectations have basically failed

According to Gao Mingyu's analysis, considering that the U.

"The United States releases 1 million barrels per day of oil reserves.

Judging from the inter-period spread of crude oil futures and the trend of spot premiums and discounts, they have all fallen back now

There have been four times in history that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released emergency reserves: the 1991 Gulf War, the 2005 U.

"The first three storage releases have all played a staged role in suppressing oil prices, but judging from the actual effect of the United States and other consuming countries releasing 79 million barrels of reserves in November last year, and the IEA's announcement on March 1 this year to release 60 million barrels of reserves, the short-term

"In the medium and long term, this consumption-type increase in supply increases future risks to a certain extent

Long and short combination configuration

"At present, the crude oil market is still in the game environment of escalating sanctions and hedging methods, and the pattern of high volatility will continue in the short term.

"The future trend of oil prices mainly depends on geographical factors, and the short-term Brent crude oil futures price will remain within the range of $100/barrel to $120/barrel