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China's primary aluminum production in the first two months of the year fell 2 percent per day from a record high in December, as low prices prompted smelters to shut down capacity
.
Market participants expect China to shut down 406,000 tonnes of annual primary aluminum capacity
in January-February.
Domestic supply pressure may be eased, and Shanghai aluminum prices have risen
.
During the week, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum maintained a strong shock trend; The average weekly settlement price of the 1903 contract of Shanghai Aluminum in the current month was 13,750 yuan, an increase of about 0.
5% from last week's settlement price; The weekly chart rose 0.
95%.
Boosted by the recent decline in London aluminum inventories and the weakening of the US dollar index, the price of London aluminum fluctuated
strongly.
Last week, the price trend of London aluminum maintained a volatile upward trend
.
The market is mainly focused on the $2,000 support level
.
On the macro front, China's consumer confidence index improved in February compared with January, and the new orders index in the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) also rebounded from January, reflecting an improvement
in domestic demand.
After the unexpected turn of the Fed's latest meeting, the market's dovish expectations for the Fed have been very strong, and the US interest rate futures market reflects that the Fed will not raise interest rates again in 2019, with a 25%
probability of a rate cut in January 2020.
In terms of the market, the trend of spot aluminum prices in the week maintained the trend of first falling and then rising and then falling, the weekly average quotation of Yangtze River spot AOO aluminum ingots was 13,740 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan / ton on a weekly average, and the average price of spot aluminum per ton in the previous week was 13,668 yuan, up 72 yuan / ton from the previous month, up 0.
53%
from the previous month.
In terms of inventory, the total aluminum stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 739058 tons, down 507 tons, or about 0.
07%,
from last week.
Aluminum market dynamics:
Trading company Marubeni Corp said aluminum inventories at Japan's three major ports rose 1.
7 percent from the previous month to 319,700 tonnes
at the end of February.
2.
China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that the output of primary aluminum from January to February was 5.
69 million tons, an increase of 5% over the same period of the previous year; China is the world's
largest producer of aluminum.
Looking forward to the future market, Rio Tinto's aluminum companies will fully put into production bauxite production, or lead to increased pressure on global aluminum oversupply, the US president advocates the decline in aluminum costs but the market payment pressure is not reduced, and the upside of spot aluminum prices is limited
during the week.
Most aluminum companies are in a long-term loss state, the downstream market environment is not good, the demand is limited, it is expected that the upward trend of aluminum prices next week is weak, maintaining a volatile market
.
