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On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 1803 oscillated higher, trading at 14675-14940 yuan / ton during the day, and closing at 14870 yuan / ton at the end, up 0.
98% on the day, its performance was much weaker than other base metals
.
At present, Shanghai aluminum is still running below the main moving average group, and the short-term downside risk remains
.
Shanghai aluminum continued the positive arrangement of near, low, far and high, in which the positive price difference between the Shanghai aluminum 1803 contract and the 1804 contract narrowed to 80 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading, the Asian market Lun aluminum oscillation continued to rise, of which 3 months Lun aluminum traded at 2266-2241 US dollars / ton, now trading at 2263 US dollars / ton, up 0.
71% per day, pay attention to whether Lun aluminum can effectively break through the recent oscillation range of 2200-2270 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of the market, on January 25, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 14540-14560 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 120-110 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentrated 14540-14560 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentrated 14590-14600 yuan / ton
.
On the supply side, alumina prices fell slightly, cost support weakened, and domestic aluminum inventories were high, increasing supply pressure
.
The demand side maintains a weak and stable pattern, weak demand near the end of the year, and foreign double-reverse policies will further restrict the export of
aluminum products.
Market News:
1.
Tajikistan's aluminum ingot production has declined
for six consecutive years.
In 2017, Tajikistan's aluminum production was 103,000 tons (including 101,000 tons exported at a total price of 270 million US dollars), 26,000 tons less than in 2016 and 175,000 tons less than in 2012
.
2.
The production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2018 to be about 3.
5 million tons, plus the existing 42 million tons of completed production capacity (excluding 3.
21 million tons of Shandong Hongqiao Xinfa and Xinjiang's 2 million tons of shutdown capacity), the overall supply of electrolytic aluminum in 2018 is still large
.
Recently, Shanghai aluminum chose to break down, as domestic inventories continue to reach new highs, supply pressure increases, and the entire fundamentals continue to weaken in the background, it is expected that short-term Shanghai aluminum will maintain weak shocks, but in the short term, driven by the rise of copper and nickel, there are signs of oscillation stabilization, short-term operation needs to be cautious
.
