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Last week, rubber prices showed a slight rebound pattern, mainly due to the improvement of domestic market sentiment, with the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai, the market's expectations for the later demand improvement are increasing, while at the macro level, the domestic steady growth signal is further released, and demand expectations are gradually improving
.
Due to the limited output of domestic raw materials in rubber itself, Hainan cutting was postponed and the price of latex rose, and there was a pattern of tight raw material prices in China, and the support of the cost side was strengthened, driving rubber prices to continue a slight rebound momentum
.
The total inventory of domestic exchanges as of May 20 was 269347 tons (+2224), and the volume of futures warehouse receipts was 254,670 tons (+690).
Rubber trees in the main producing areas of Hainan in China are affected by powdery mildew, and the output of raw materials is less, and there is a risk
of mitigation in the later warehouse receipt.
As of May 15, port inventories continued to recover slightly, with both arrivals and outbounds rebounding, but downstream demand recovered slowly and outbound volumes were limited
.
With the control of the epidemic, domestic demand will slowly recover, and port inventories are expected to decline
steadily.
The center of gravity of spot prices moved slightly upward last week, the operation of the end market improved, and the expectation of good raw material demand heated up, so the center of gravity of the spot market price increased overall during the week
.
Qingdao dollar rubber spot volatility higher, the weekly average price is narrow.
However, downstream inventories are high, terminal demand is weak, and the support for rubber prices is weak, and the increase is limited
.
The natural rubber US dollar cargo market declined slightly, only a few rubber varieties rose slightly, the release of raw materials in foreign production areas gradually increased, the purchase price of glue declined, and the cost support weakened; Secondly, the performance of domestic demand is average, and the enthusiasm for US dollar cargo procurement is not good, so the overall transaction atmosphere is weak, and only some factories mainly purchase sporadic purchases
.
In terms of downstream tire operating rate, as of May 19, the operating rate of all-steel tire enterprises was 54.
53% (-1.
11%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises was 62% (+1.
51%)
.
Domestic demand has recovered slowly, and the recovery of operating rates is still slow, with a focus on the resumption
of production activities after the lifting of the lockdown in Shanghai.
Operating rates are expected to pick up slightly next week
.
On the whole, due to the postponement of cutting in the main production areas of Hainan and the relatively high price of concentrated milk, the current raw material prices in the domestic market are relatively tight, and the tension will not be resolved
this month.
On the demand side, due to the improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai and the imminent full lifting of the lockdown, demand recovery is expected to strengthen.
The tight pattern of supply and demand is conducive to the short-term rebound of rubber prices
.
