Supply and demand pressures have eased LLDPE opens low and goes higher

News: 1.
ICIS supply and demand database shows that about 4.
6 million tons of new polyethylene (PE) production capacity has been put into operation this year, increasing global PE production capacity by 3.
8
%.
In addition, the slowdown in economic growth has affected PE demand, resulting in oversupply in the global PE market, and the price of some PE products has fallen to a 10-year low
.

2.
According to statistics, the domestic PE output in the first half of 2019 was 8.
6721 million tons, an increase of 645,300 tons or 8.
04%
over the same period in 2018 (8.
0268 million tons).
In the first half of the year, there were fewer domestic PE petrochemical overhaul equipment, and the operating rate was relatively high, fluctuating
between 92% and 98%.
The total amount of PE imports in the first half of the year was 8.
131 million tons, an increase of 1.
19 million tons or 17.
14%
over the same period last year (6.
941 million tons).

Upstream raw materials market: The price of naphtha in the Japanese market fell back to $468.
13/ton, -5.
62
.
Ethylene Asian market Northeast Asia quotation is 880 US dollars / ton, -20; Southeast Asia is 820 US dollars / ton, 0
.

Spot market: The domestic LLDPE spot market generally lowered the unit price
during the day.
The price in North China market is reduced by 50-100 yuan / ton, the mainstream price is 7350 yuan / ton, 0; the price in East China market is reduced by 50-200 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation is 7300 yuan / ton, -100; the mainstream price in South China market is 7600 yuan / ton, 0
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipts reported 2709 lots, intraday +240 lots; In the historical median zone
.
Main position: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 237874 lots, -2097 lots, short positions are 271089 lots, -9461 lots, net positions are -33215 lots, net short is reduced
.

Summary: Affected by the spread of trade unrest, international oil prices fell; Naphtha and ethylene prices retreated, weakening cost support
.
PE port inventories fell this week; And affected by the tariffs announced over the weekend, PE imports are expected to be blocked
.
Downstream agricultural film orders gradually followed, and production gradually increased
.
Supply and demand pressures may ease.

LLDPE main contract opened low, oscillating upward, MACD green column miniature, above focus on pressure around 7350, below focus on support around 7200, it is expected that the price will fluctuate and sort, it is recommended to reduce the position of short orders in hand
.