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Supply and demand may reverse at any time, how much does the crude oil bulls win?

 Last Update: 2023-03-04
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2022, we believe the geopolitical nature of oil prices remains strong, especially the uncertainty on the supply side of the oil market at any time could significantly reverse the supply and demand side of the crude oil market and push oil prices from one end of the pendulum to the other extreme
.
Only from the current supply and demand pattern, as long as Russian crude oil cannot resume exports on a large scale, and the epidemic in Asia is relatively controllable, the probability of oil prices remaining at a high level in the second quarter is greater, internal and external oil prices may still reach new highs, and the downward inflection point of the trend may be moved back to the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the
third quarter.

However, in the context of overseas tightening cycles, the medium-term downward trend will be very sharp
.
If the spread of the epidemic in Asia exceeds expectations, oil prices are likely to ignore the shortage of supply in the second quarter, and the negative shorts under the tightening are released in advance, and start a round of deep adjustment and rebound
at the end of the second quarter.

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