Supply and demand are weak balance state short-term Shanghai aluminum is strong and unchanged

News side: 1.
The open market of the People's Bank of China will carry out a 7-day reverse repurchase
of 230 billion yuan today.
The open market has $80 billion of reverse buybacks expiring
today.
This week, a total of 1.
16 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase expired in the open market, and no positive repurchase and central government notes expired
.

2.
Feng Fei, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced the specific situation and general ideas
of the central government to promote industrial restructuring and dispose of "zombie enterprises".
The general idea is to follow the principles of enterprise entities, government promotion, market guidance and disposal according to law, pay more attention to the use of market mechanisms, economic means and rule of law methods, through mergers and reorganization, debt restructuring and even bankruptcy liquidation, as much merger and reorganization as possible, less bankruptcy liquidation, and actively and steadily promote the withdrawal of
"zombie enterprises".
Restructuring still depends on market mechanisms, not government support
.
To promote industrial restructuring and deal with "zombie enterprises", it is necessary to "treat both the symptoms and the root causes, and combine the long and the short"
.
The so-called "both symptoms and root causes, combination of long and short" is to focus on improving the long-term exit mechanism
of enterprise marketization.
Localities should stop granting credit to "zombie enterprises", and banks should also distinguish the situation and stop renewing loans; It is necessary to strengthen law enforcement in environmental protection, energy efficiency, quality, safety, technology and other aspects, and force "zombie enterprises" to accelerate their withdrawal in
accordance with laws and regulations.

3.
In January 2016, China's aluminum alloy wheel exports amounted to 304 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 19.
4%; The export volume was 65,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.
5%; The export unit price is 4.
67 US dollars / kg
.
There were 357 export manufacturers, and the total export value of the top 40 manufacturers in the mid-term period was 254 million US dollars, accounting for 83.
6% of the total export value of this product; The total export value of the top 100 manufacturers was 293 million US dollars, accounting for 96.
5%
of the total export value of this product.

Tomorrow's aluminum price analysis: the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced the disposal of zombie enterprises clear market guidance is the mainstay, explained is still to rely on free competition survival of the fittest to resolve the problem of backward production capacity exit, then reflected in the specific commodity price is to rely on the market price lower than the high-cost production capacity to cause backward capacity loss shutdown, repeat the story of November 2015, the current effect is better, if the government at all levels from the state to the local government can adhere to this principle, on the one hand, it is the right path for the industry, short-term pain for long-term improvement On the other hand, it is a fundamental bearish for aluminum prices, and limits the extent
of aluminum price rebound.
If the whole industry is profitable at the current price, high-cost production capacity is basically empty
.
Pay attention to the follow-up policy implementation
.
In the short term, after the consolidation in January, the continuous rally in February is still continuing, and the short-term strength will not change
.
Although the downstream gradual start demand is overdrawn in the early stage, some of it is still gradually released; In principle, the aluminum plant agreement does not resume production and does not start new construction, and the short-term supply pressure is small
.
In the state of weak balance between supply and demand, futures bulls obviously continue to control the trend
.
Spot followed higher, and the large discount in the early stage was gradually repaired
.
Tomorrow's aluminum prices are expected to rise or flat, for reference
only.