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The current contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent, although the supply side is affected by the weather, but the actual reduction in production is far from repairing the oversupply caused by the shrinking demand side; The overseas epidemic is still in the outbreak period, and demand has been severely suppressed
.
Market sentiment at home and abroad has warmed up with the arrival of the inflection point of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, and it is still difficult to reverse the pattern
of oversupply in the short term.
It is expected that before the demand side does not completely improve, rubber prices will maintain a wide range of bottom fluctuations, and the fluctuation range is expected to be between
9500 yuan and 10500 yuan.
In April this year, China's heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell 180,000 models of various types, an increase of 50% month-on-month and a significant increase of 52%
year-on-year.
From January to April this year, a total of 454,100 heavy-duty trucks were sold, a slight increase of 2%
over the same period last year.
Moreover, the prosperity index of China's logistics industry in April was 53.
6%, up 2.
1 percentage points
from the previous month.
The data shows that the domestic economy is gradually recovering, and pent-up demand was released
in February and March.
In addition, the auto dealer inventory warning index in April was 56.
8%, down 4.
2 percentage points month-on-month and 6.
9 percentage points year-on-year, which has been lowered for two consecutive months and slightly lower than the same period in 2016, 2017 and 2018, indicating that the terminal sales situation is gradually returning to normal
.
Generally speaking, April is the off-season for automobile sales, but this year, stimulated by the intensive introduction of consumption policies in many places, coupled with the release of pent-up consumer demand in the first quarter, and manufacturers and dealers increased promotional efforts, these factors drove sales to recover
.
The situation of the new crown epidemic abroad is still not optimistic, but the automobile and tire companies that stopped production in the early stage are gradually resuming work, and the domestic tire export situation may improve
.
The average operating rate of domestic tire companies in April was about 61%, down nearly 13 percentage points from the previous two years
.
In the past, the average operating rate of tire companies in May was above 70%, and if the production of enterprises returned to normal in the later period, the level of rubber consumption would also increase
significantly.
After entering May, the main production areas will be cut one after another, but due to the adverse weather and low rubber prices, the scale of new rubber will not be large
in the short term.
Compared with the first quarter, the overall supply and demand of rubber is expected to improve
.
Moreover, the market has expectations
for more favorable policies before the "two sessions".
Therefore, the long-term bottom of the Shanghai rubber trend may form, but the rubber price may not have the ability to
rise sharply for the time being.
Technically, there may be resistance
around 11,000 yuan.
