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At the beginning of 2015, mainstream institutions gave more optimistic estimates for global copper concentrate supply in 2015
.
For example, CRU expects global copper concentrate production growth to reach around 4.
9%, while ICSG expects it to be around
6.
5%.
However, since the beginning of this year, due to the influence of environmental protection, labor problems, heavy rain, power and other interference factors in some mines, the growth rate of copper concentrate production has slowed down; At the same time, some new projects delayed the commissioning time due to low copper prices and environmental pressures, which ultimately led to a significant increase
in global copper concentrate production in the first half of the year as expected.
Summary of some copper mine disturbance incidents in the first half of 2015:
For the second half of the year, the uncertainty of copper concentrate supply remains large
.
For example, Zambia will continue to plagued the output of its copper mines due to power shortages, and strikes in Chile may continue to ferment.
In response to the loss of copper production caused by this year's disruptions, Morgan Stanley forecasts a loss of about 500,000 tons so far, while Standard Bank, controlled by ICBC, forecasts an annualized loss of about 1.
33 million tons, which has led many institutions to start lowering their previous supply growth forecasts
.
CRU lowered the growth rate of global copper concentrate production in 2015 to 2.
2%, which means that the increase in global copper concentrate production in 2015 is expected to shrink from 710,000 tons at the beginning of the year to 320,000 tons
.
At the beginning of 2015, mainstream institutions gave more optimistic estimates for global copper concentrate supply in 2015
.
For example, CRU expects global copper concentrate production growth to reach around 4.
9%, while ICSG expects it to be around
6.
5%.
However, since the beginning of this year, due to the influence of environmental protection, labor problems, heavy rain, power and other interference factors in some mines, the growth rate of copper concentrate production has slowed down; At the same time, some new projects delayed the commissioning time due to low copper prices and environmental pressures, which ultimately led to a significant increase
in global copper concentrate production in the first half of the year as expected.
Summary of some copper mine disturbance incidents in the first half of 2015:
For the second half of the year, the uncertainty of copper concentrate supply remains large
.
For example, Zambia will continue to plagued the output of its copper mines due to power shortages, and strikes in Chile may continue to ferment.
In response to the loss of copper production caused by this year's disruptions, Morgan Stanley forecasts a loss of about 500,000 tons so far, while Standard Bank, controlled by ICBC, forecasts an annualized loss of about 1.
33 million tons, which has led many institutions to start lowering their previous supply growth forecasts
.
CRU lowered the growth rate of global copper concentrate production in 2015 to 2.
2%, which means that the increase in global copper concentrate production in 2015 is expected to shrink from 710,000 tons at the beginning of the year to 320,000 tons
.
