Sudden ban!

Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, with exports reaching about 400 million tonnes in 2020
.
At the same time, Indonesia is China's largest coal importer: data from the General Administration of Customs shows that from January to November last year, a total of 290 million tons of coal were imported, and Indonesia supplied 178 million tons to China, accounting for about 61%
.

Indonesia's export ban will push up global coal prices in the coming weeks as coal inventories fall, industry analysts at Bank Mandiri predict
.

According to the Indonesian news website Kumparan on the 1st, the website of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a statement on December 31, informing all coal miners about the country’s recent coal supply shortage, saying it may have an impact on the country’s power system
.

The statement said that the coal supply for household electricity is now very short, and the lack of electricity supply may affect 10 million households and industrial users
.
"If no strategic action is taken, there may be widespread power outages (in the country),
" Indonesia's energy minister stressed in a statement
.

Therefore, in order to prevent the closure of about 20 power plants in Java, Madura, Bali and other regions, coal miners are required to stop coal exports from January 1 to January 31, 2022, and use all coal for domestic demand
.
All ports are required to store all coal for supply to domestic power plants and independent power producers (IPPs)
.

Indonesia's energy minister added that coal exports will return to normal when the country's domestic power plants are fully supplied with coal
.
He did not mention a specific time, saying only that "everything will be evaluated" after January 5
.

Indonesia's sudden ban affects 60% of China's imported coal supply

Reuters quoted data as saying that Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, with exports of about 400 million tons in 2020, mainly to China, India, Japan and South Korea
.
According to data released by the Indonesian National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October last year, Indonesia exported a total of 360 million tons of coal, of which thermal coal exports reached 265 million tons
.

At the same time, Indonesia is China's largest coal importer
.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, in November 2021, China imported 35.
052 million tons of coal, an increase of 23.
381 million tons or 200.
33% from 11.
671 million tons in the same period last year
.
Compared with 26.
943 million tons in October, an increase of 8.
109 million tons, an increase of 30.
10%
.

In terms of the import volume of various coal types, thermal coal in November 2021 is still the coal type with the largest import volume in China
.
The import volume of generalized thermal coal (including other coal, other bituminous coal and lignite) accounted for 74.
72% of the total import volume
.

The data shows that in November, Indonesia exported 19.
5 million tons of coal to China, accounting for 55.
95% of the total import volume.
In October, Indonesia exported 15.
56 million tons of coal to China, accounting for 58.
22% of the total import volume.
The import volume decreased by 2.
27% compared with October.

.

From January to November 2021, China imported a total of 292.
321 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 10.
6% and an increase of 8.
7 percentage points over the previous 10 months
.
Among them, Indonesia supplied 178 million tons to China, accounting for about 61%
.

According to the Chinese Embassy in Indonesia, not long ago (December 21), a number of Chinese companies and Indonesian coal companies signed another order at the 2021 China Import Coal Summit, and China will continue to import coal from Indonesia
.

Export ban + increase in electricity prices in many provinces may implicate many upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry chain

Data show that from January to November 2021, China imported a total of 292.
321 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 10.
6% and an increase of 8.
7 percentage points from the previous 10 months
.
In other words, China's domestic coal supply cannot be guaranteed, resulting in increasing imports
.

According to industry analysts, January and February are the winter months in China and the main months for coal imports
.
In the first 11 months of 2020, the highest single-month coal import was 34.
8 million tons in January, followed by 33.
26 million tons in February
.
At present, China's port inventory is already running out
.

According to data from China Coal Resources Network, as of December 31, the coal storage in Qingang was 4.
74 million tons, a decrease of 350,000 tons from the same period last week, a decrease of 660,000 tons from the same period last month, and a decrease of 310,000 tons from the same period last year
.

It can be seen from the data that the inventory has been declining recently, and with the news that Indonesian coal was banned from exporting in January, it is very likely that coal will tighten in the short term
.

Indonesia's coal varieties are mostly used as thermal coal for power generation, and there is a sudden 75% gap.
Will the power outage in the hot summer be staged again in the cold January?

At the same time, according to media reports, several provinces in China announced that from January 1, 2022, time-of-use electricity prices will be increased by up to 70%
.
The industrial and commercial electricity price in Shandong Province fluctuates between 50% and 170% of the benchmark price, with an increase of 70% during peak periods and a decrease of 50% during trough periods; the peak and trough periods of residential and agricultural electricity consumption in Gansu and Yunnan provinces will fluctuate 50% above and below the parity basis.
In Jiangxi Province, the electricity price is increased by 50% during peak hours, and the electricity price during peak hours is increased by 20% on the basis of peak hours
.
Shanxi's electricity price was raised by 60% during peak hours
.

Most of the provinces where the electricity price increase this time are important towns in the chemical industry.
It is expected to have a direct impact on local chemical companies, and the increase in operating costs of enterprises may involve many upstream and downstream companies in the industry chain
.

Influenced by the environmental protection management and control of the Winter Olympics, power and production restrictions, and the epidemic, this Spring Festival may become the most out-of-stock period in history?

At the same time, as the end of the year approaches, due to factors such as the environmental protection control of the Winter Olympics, power and production restrictions, and repeated epidemics, many chemical plants will be completely shut down by the end of the year, and it is urgent to stock up
.

At the same time, there is still less than a month before the Chinese New Year.
Now, whether it is an OEM or a supporting factory, the annual leave is put on the agenda.
During the festival, the factory will not produce, the logistics will be suspended, and coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, orders from many years ago may be It needs to be completed after the year
.

At present, whether it is in terms of delivery cycle or price increase, stocking is an important issue currently considered by old chemical industry friends
.
This year's Spring Festival holiday may become the most out-of-stock period in history
.