Styrene butadiene rubber stepped into the ascending channel 　　

Recently, in the styrene butadiene rubber plant of Fushun Petrochemical Company, workers are busy using steam to soften and completely remove the old rubber attached to the post-processing system
.

Workshop director Zhang Wenjing said that the styrene butadiene rubber market has shown a positive trend, and the production line is ready to increase the production of SBR1502 products after the transformation of the production line

In early April, the styrene-butadiene rubber market price hit a historical low since 2008, and then rebounded from the low point of 7860 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the average price on May 12 reached 8220 yuan
.

The industry generally believes that the supply and demand fundamentals of styrene butadiene rubber are expected to be positive, and the market is expected to bottom out successfully in the later stage

The market starts to pick up

"The news about the reduction and cancellation of foreign trade orders and the factory holidays continue to impact the mentality of the industry, while Sinopec and other companies also lowered the price of styrene butadiene rubber on April 1, and the market offer continued to fall
.

" Jinlianchuang analyst Cui Jing said

In April, the styrene-butadiene rubber market suffered an "extreme cold".
The average price at the beginning of the month once broke through the 8,000 yuan point and fell to 7,860 yuan, a year-on-year drop of 30.
8%
.

On April 3, the market price of Jilin Petrochemical SBR1502 was 7,700 yuan, Fushun Petrochemical SBR1502 was 7,800 yuan, and Qilu Petrochemical SBR1502 was 7,850 yuan

"Sparse downstream orders dragged down the styrene butadiene rubber market,
" said Tian Yuan, a rubber distributor in Liaoning, when analyzing market trends
.

He further explained that in early April, affected by the prevention and control of the foreign epidemic, tire exports declined, and the domestic tire industry's operating rate also declined overall.
The company did not have a plan to stock up styrene butadiene rubber raw materials, and the intermediaries were not strong in replenishment.

However, with the rebound of international crude oil prices in early May, the overall focus of the chemical industry chain has shifted, and the styrene butadiene rubber market has gradually recovered
.

On April 30, the average market price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 8,220 yuan, an increase of 360 yuan from the low at the beginning of the month, an increase of 4.

　　Stronger cost support

　　"The global new crown pneumonia epidemic and the international crude oil market are still important factors affecting the trend of energy and chemical products
.

From the perspective of the styrene chain, the support on the cost side is expected to gradually increase

　　Cui Jing said that in May, the Asian ethylene market may be on the rise
.

With the decline of ocean-going goods, the supply in the local region is also expected to tighten, coupled with the recovery of downstream demand, the Asian ethylene market is optimistic, and this month may get out of the turbulence and upward trend

　　According to industry insiders, the butadiene market, another major raw material of styrene butadiene rubber, is expected to continue to rebound
.
In May, Yangzi BASF's 130,000 tons/year butadiene plant has a shutdown and maintenance plan, and the maintenance is expected to continue until about mid-June; Zhongsha Petrochemical’s 200,000 tons/year butadiene plant plans to shut down in early May for maintenance and repair.
About a month; Maoming Petrochemical's 150,000 tons/year butadiene plant overhaul time is tentatively scheduled for mid-to-late May
.
Overall, the butadiene supply in May will be significantly reduced compared to April
.
Moreover, due to considerable processing profits, most downstream industries continue to operate at a high load, and the rigid demand also supports the butadiene market.
It is expected that butadiene prices will maintain an upward trend in May
.

　　In general, the two major raw materials of styrene and butadiene are expected to rise, which is expected to support higher prices of styrene butadiene rubber from the cost side
.

　　Downstream confidence recovery

　　"The sales data of heavy trucks in April exceeded expectations, which indicates that domestic demand has taken the lead from the global'post-epidemic' stage
.
" According to Gao Linlin, a senior researcher at Guotai Junan Futures Industry Service Research Institute, important benefits have emerged in the rubber market
.

　　According to Gao Linlin, China's heavy-duty truck market sold 180,000 vehicles of various types in April, an increase of 50% month-on-month and a substantial increase of 52% year-on-year
.
From January to April, China’s cumulative sales of various types of heavy trucks were 454,100, a slight increase of 2% over the same period last year.
Compared with the 16% decline in the first quarter of this year, April “catch up” a full 18 percentage points
.

　　The data of tire manufacturers are also consistent with the sales data of heavy trucks
.
The Everbright Futures Strategy Report shows that the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies in April was 62.
46%, an increase of 4.
97 percentage points month-on-month; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 58.
73%, an increase of 2.
98 percentage points month-on-month
.
In fact, foreign tire manufacturers are also sending positive signals.
A number of American tire factories, including Hankook, Yokohama and Nokian, have resumed or plan to resume operations
.

　　More importantly, producers have a more positive attitude
.
Zhang Wenjing said that in the past two years, the upstream butadiene has had a greater "right to speak" in the industry chain due to tight supply, and the price has reached the highest level in history.
The profits of the industry chain are concentrated in the upstream, and the profits of rubber companies are low
.
At the beginning of this year, as the butadiene plants of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical were put into production successively, the tight supply situation has eased, and the profits of the industrial chain may shift from upstream to synthetic rubber, which also brings opportunities to the styrene butadiene rubber market.
The industry has regained confidence and has a more positive attitude towards production
.

　　Regarding the evolution of the styrene butadiene rubber market in the later period, Zhang Wenjing believes that although the downstream terminal consumption has not reached the pre-epidemic level and the pain points in the styrene butadiene rubber market still exist, the overall impact of the current epidemic has gradually declined, superimposed on the stabilization of oil prices and the recovery of domestic demand Together with the financial boost, the styrene butadiene rubber market is expected to open an upward channel
.