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Yesterday's aluminum prices were weak on a daily basis, mainly due to the recent national power shortage affecting downstream consumption and aluminum ingot inventories have rebounded, and the night session has rebounded, mainly because Yunnan and other places production capacity is limited
or restricted again due to power cuts.
Yesterday, the State Reserve Bureau announced that the fourth batch of aluminum ingot storage scale is 70,000 tons, coupled with the increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory in the day compared with last Thursday, the willingness of downstream and middlemen to receive goods is low, the pressure of cargo holders has increased, and aluminum prices have retraced
.
Fundamentally, the supply side continues to increase power rationing and dual control of energy consumption in China, which continues to interfere with the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the production capacity of Wenshan Prefecture in Yunnan will be reduced by 50%, which is expected to affect the production capacity
of 320,000 tons.
The bearish sentiment of consumer holders has increased, the demand of receiving parties is still weak, on-demand buying, and the trading situation is poor
.
Recently, the national coal supply is insufficient, and the rise in coal prices has led to power cuts in many places due to power shortages, among which aluminum pole manufacturers in Guizhou, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places have been limited by electricity, affecting the decline in production; Many aluminum profile factories in Guangdong, Shandong and Jiangsu have also begun to increase processing fees
.
Inventory data shows that the domestic aluminum ingot social library has accumulated to a certain extent
.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks stood at 1,718,300 mt as of September 27, down 0.
58 million mt
from the previous session.
In the week ended September 24, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 23,000 tons month-on-month to 789,000 tons
.
In terms of price, the supply and demand ends of aluminum will still benefit from the impact of the concept of "carbon neutrality" for a long time in the future, and in the short term, aluminum prices may be pulled back due to macro disturbances and pre-holiday capital profit exits, but supported by strong fundamentals, the downside is limited, and it is still recommended to go long on the dip unilaterally, and it is also recommended to treat it with a long idea in the cross-variety arbitrage strategy
.
