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Since the beginning of this year, the overall real estate investment has been relatively stable, and the growth rate of new housing starts has been relatively fast, which has a strong supporting effect
on the downstream demand for PVC.
After autumn, the downstream consumption season is expected to improve further
.
At present, although the operating rate has remained at a historical high, inventories have continued to fall
.
Generally speaking, the industry is developing healthily, showing a pattern
of both supply and demand.
The future market is subject to the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, as well as the relative shortage of spot after the inventory return, which will have some support for its price, and it is recommended to try more
on the dip.
Upstream price: Recently, calcium carbide transportation has been significantly affected, not only due to the impact of the 60th anniversary of the founding of Ningxia, the strengthening of road security inspection, and the squeeze of seasonal fruit and vegetable transportation, which has hindered
the supply of calcium carbide in stages.
Coupled with the unstable start of calcium carbide furnaces in some areas, as well as the maintenance of calcium carbide furnace equipment in some takeaway enterprises, the supply and demand are slightly unbalanced when the start of PVC remains stable, resulting in higher calcium carbide prices in local areas
.
Naphtha CF Japan reported $681.
38/mt, down 2; FOB Singapore was trading at $74.
227 a barrel, up 0.
02
.
ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 1270 US dollars / ton, flat; CFR Southeast Asia was trading at $1160 a tonne, down $
10.
Domestic calcium carbide prices were stable, with East China reporting 3600 yuan, flat, and Northwest reported 3405 yuan, flat
.
PVC1901 contract opened at 6695 yuan, the highest 6725 yuan / ton, the lowest 6660 yuan / ton, closed at 6675 yuan / ton, down 0, down 0%, the volume reported 168866 lots, and the position increased by 1626 lots to 302202 lots
.
Spot market: CFR Southeast Asia was flat at $940; CFR China was flat at $930
.
North China calcium carbide law reported 6800 yuan / ton, flat; ethylene law reported 7,000 yuan / ton, flat; East China calcium carbide method reported 6830 yuan / ton, flat, ethylene method 7150 yuan, flat; South China calcium carbide method 6950 yuan, flat, ethylene method 7250 yuan, flat
.
The overall PVC production capacity operating rate jumped sharply in late July
.
The traditional production off-season has reached an operating rate
of more than 80%.
Correspondingly, the social inventory of PVC does not increase but falls
.
The social stock of PVC is now in line with the same period in
2016.
In the case of high starts, social inventories have increased but declined, highlighting the pattern
of supply and demand in the overall industry this summer.
After entering September, PVC still has a wave of maintenance peak, if the maintenance is carried out as scheduled and involves a large production capacity, the phased supply pressure is not large, coupled with PVC social inventory is still hovering near the low point of the year, PVC enterprises have little pressure on shipments, so the willingness to actively reduce prices is not strong
.
At the same time, calcium carbide prices are still relatively firm, and there is still room for cost support
.
The PVC1901 contract opened slightly higher and lower
.
Fundamentally, the strong price of calcium carbide has formed a certain support for the futures price, but the spot price is loose, and the willingness of downstream demanders to take goods is not strong, which suppresses
the futures price.
Technically, the MACD shock retreated, but the green column shortened, the KDJ indicator reformed a dead cross, and the short-term price is expected to maintain the bottom shock finishing
.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being
.
